Mallorca vs Osasuna – 29 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 14 Sat, Nov 29 · 13:00 Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca

Mallorca 16th · 12 pts · 13 played WDLWL

2–2Full time

Osasuna 17th · 11 pts · 13 played LLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Mallorca were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Osasuna. Mallorca had 6.7 days of rest, Osasuna 6.8 and had to travel 509 km.

Away travel509 kmRest days6.7 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Mallorca43%

Draw28%

Osasuna29%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.12

Mallorca42%

Draw27%

Osasuna31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Mallorca41%

Draw28%

Osasuna31%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.12

Mallorca36%

Draw28%

Osasuna36%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.25

Mallorca44%

Draw26%

Osasuna30%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.22

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Palma de Mallorca)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.44
Matches 39

Team strength

Mallorca

Osasuna

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

50 AttackIn forecast 50

59 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Mallorca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Mallorca

Osasuna

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.77

1.54 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.23

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

77% Scored inContext 54%

15% Clean sheetsContext 23%

10.38 ShotsContext 9.85

3.77 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.58

36% On target shareContext 34%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.45

61% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 8%

2.57 OffsidesContext 1.57

14.00 Shots allowedContext 13.23

4.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.85 BlocksContext 3.50

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.77

72% Save rateContext 75%

44% PossessionIn forecast 46%

376 PassesContext 389

300 Accurate passesContext 314

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.92 FoulsContext 12.38

12.15 Fouls sufferedContext 11.62

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

1.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.00

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

36% On target shareContext 36%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.44

56% Box shareContext 72%

10% ConversionContext 9%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.60

13.40 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.70 BlocksContext 3.78

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10

73% Save rateContext 75%

46% PossessionIn forecast 46%

385 PassesContext 383

308 Accurate passesContext 308

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.60 FoulsContext 12.10

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Mallorca

Rest6.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km477 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Osasuna

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel509 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Mallorca	Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.7La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Nov	6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	509 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	477 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	9.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Mallorca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13L. Bergström(G)

22J. Mojica 21Raíllo 24M. Valjent 23Pablo Maffeo

5Omar Mascarell 12Samú Costa

17J. Virgili 10Darder 18Mateo Joseph

7V. Muriqi

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Osasuna Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Sergio Herrera(G)

29Asier Osambela 5Jorge Herrando 22F. Boyomo

23Abel Bretones 10Aimar Oroz 6Lucas Torró 7Moncayola

14Rubén García 17A. Budimir 21Víctor Muñoz

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Mallorca Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Osasuna Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Mallorca+1.6 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Osasuna-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Mallorca · Home 1.50points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-1
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.00

Osasuna · Away 0.14points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-6
Scored: 0.14
Conceded: 1.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Mallorca	Osasuna
Villarreal	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 A
Getafe	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Real Betis	L 0–3 A	L 0–2 A
Sevilla	W 3–1 A	L 0–1 A
Real Sociedad	L 0–1 A	L 1–3 H
Atletico Madrid	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Espanyol	L 2–3 A	L 0–1 A
Real Madrid	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 H
Points	8 of 27 · 0.89 per game	3 of 27 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Mallorca wins3 draws3 Osasuna wins

Goals per game1.13 – 1.13 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 38%

10 Feb 2025Mallorca1–1Osasuna
24 Aug 2024Osasuna1–0Mallorca
14 May 2024Osasuna1–1Mallorca
21 Dec 2023Mallorca3–2Osasuna
31 Mar 2023Mallorca0–0Osasuna
14 Jan 2023Osasuna1–0Mallorca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Mallorca	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.77
Conceded per game	1.54	1.23
Match goals	2.54	2.00	2.52
Over 1.5	77%	54%
Over 2.5	54%	31%	46%
Over 3.5	15%	15%
Both teams scored	62%	38%	51%
Clean sheets	15%	23%
Failed to score	23%	46%
Games	13	13

	Mallorca	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	2.50	2.30	2.52
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Mallorca	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	3.18
Corners conceded	6.67	3.91
Match total	10.17	7.09	9.77
Over 8.5	83% 10/12	27% 3/11
Over 9.5	42% 5/12	18% 2/11
Over 10.5	42% 5/12	0% 0/11
Cards
Cards	2.23	2.23
Opponent cards	2.15	2.15
Match total	4.38	4.38	4.28
Over 3.5	62% 8/13	77% 10/13
Over 4.5	38% 5/13	62% 8/13

	Mallorca	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	3.22
Corners conceded	7.33	4.11
Match total	10.89	7.33	9.77
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.30
Opponent cards	2.20	2.30
Match total	4.20	4.60	4.28
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.36league 4.04

Red cards0.28league 0.27

Cards 5+49%league 45%

Fouls24.8league 24.5

Penalties0.44league 0.34

Home wins38%league 48%

Mallorca1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L2 Nov 25A · Real Betis0–33

Osasuna2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

W24 Aug 25H · Valencia1–02
W20 Apr 25A · Valladolid3–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.