Mallorca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Mallorca48.8%fair odds 2.05
Draw27.9%fair odds 3.58
Oviedo23.3%fair odds 4.30
Expected goals1.45 – 0.92total 2.37
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Oviedo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Mallorca ↓ · Oviedo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Mallorca goals, columns Oviedo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.62
- 1–012.9%7.78
- 0–010.0%10.03
- 2–09.8%10.19
- 2–19.1%11.05
- 0–17.9%12.63
- 1–25.7%17.41
- 3–04.8%21.04
- 3–14.4%22.82
- 2–24.2%23.97
Winning margin
9.6%
Mallorca by 3+
fair 10.39
15.0%
Mallorca by 2
fair 6.67
24.2%
Mallorca by 1
fair 4.14
27.9%
Draw
fair 3.58
15.1%
Oviedo by 1
fair 6.62
6.0%
Oviedo by 2
fair 16.54
2.1%
Oviedo by 3+
fair 47.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Mallorca goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Oviedo goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 48.8% | 49.8% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.8% | +1.2 pp |
| Oviedo win | 23.3% | 23.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.4% | 46.7% | -4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.8% | 50.1% | -3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Mallorca | 1.45 | 1.55 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals Oviedo | 0.92 | 0.99 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Mallorca win48.8%2.05
- Draw27.9%3.58
- Oviedo win23.3%4.30
- Double chance Mallorca or draw76.7%1.30
- Double chance Mallorca or Oviedo72.1%1.39
- Double chance Oviedo or draw51.2%1.95
- Draw no bet Mallorca67.7%1.48
- Draw no bet Oviedo32.3%3.10
Goals
- Over 0.590.0%1.11
- Over 1.569.3%1.44
- Over 2.542.4%2.36
- Over 3.521.6%4.63
- Over 4.59.3%10.79
- Under 1.530.7%3.25
- Under 2.557.6%1.74
- Under 3.578.4%1.28
Both teams to score
- Yes46.8%2.14
- No53.2%1.88
- Yes and over 2.533.7%2.97
- Mallorca win and yes19.0%5.27
- Draw and yes18.0%5.56
- Oviedo win and yes9.8%10.17
Team goals
- Mallorca over 0.576.6%1.31
- Mallorca over 1.542.6%2.35
- Mallorca over 2.517.9%5.58
- Oviedo over 0.560.2%1.66
- Oviedo over 1.523.6%4.24
- Oviedo over 2.56.7%15.03
- Mallorca clean sheet39.8%2.51
- Oviedo clean sheet23.4%4.27
- Mallorca win to nil29.8%3.35
- Oviedo win to nil13.4%7.45
Handicap
- Mallorca −1.524.6%4.06
- Mallorca −2.59.6%10.39
- Oviedo +1.575.4%1.33
- Oviedo +2.590.4%1.11
- Oviedo −1.58.2%12.25
- Mallorca +1.591.8%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored370
Favourite won51.9%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.580
Over 2.5 called right56.8%
BTTS called right57.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 76 | 37.9% | 32.9% |
| 40–50% | 149 | 44.5% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 73 | 54.7% | 61.6% |
| 60–70% | 37 | 63.9% | 62.2% |
| 70–80% | 28 | 74.5% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 288 of 370 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5748 | 0.5685 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 53.5% | 55.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 278 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Barcelona 3–1 Real Betis65·21·14
- ✓Elche 1–0 Getafe38·29·33
- ✓Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Villarreal42·27·31
- ✗Osasuna 1–2 Espanyol50·26·24
- ✓Oviedo 0–1 Alaves33·30·38
- ✗Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia40·27·33
- ✓Levante 2–0 Mallorca48·26·26
- ✓Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid24·27·49
- ✗Athletic Club 1–1 Celta Vigo40·29·31
- ✓Atletico Madrid 1–0 Girona55·25·21
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 370 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.