Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Mallorca were slight favourites.
Mallorca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Mallorca had 6.1 days of rest, Oviedo 6.1 and had to travel 823 km.
Away travel823 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Mallorca49%
Draw28%
Oviedo23%
Mallorca54%
Draw25%
Oviedo21%
Mallorca49%
Draw28%
Oviedo23%
Mallorca42%
Draw29%
Oviedo29%
Mallorca50%
Draw27%
Oviedo23%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
RefereeJosé Sánchez
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 99
Team strength
Mallorca
Oviedo
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
50
AttackIn forecast
23
59
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaOviedo
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
76%
Scored inContext
46%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.11
ShotsContext
9.43
4.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.19
39%
On target shareContext
33%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
65%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.04
OffsidesContext
2.43
13.86
Shots allowedContext
14.22
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.53
4.22
BlocksContext
3.89
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.26
69%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
388
PassesContext
385
315
Accurate passesContext
316
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.68
FoulsContext
12.43
12.11
Fouls sufferedContext
11.73
2.16
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.10
ShotsContext
9.90
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
40%
On target shareContext
35%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
68%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.10
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
2.89
BlocksContext
3.78
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
62%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
427
PassesContext
424
361
Accurate passesContext
355
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.77
14.10
FoulsContext
12.20
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,621 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Oviedo
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel823 km744 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 823 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,621 km | 744 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
3Toni Lato
5Omar Mascarell
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
8Manu Morlanes
10Darder
12Samú Costa
20Pablo Torre
7V. Muriqi
11T. Asano
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
1H. Moldovan(G)
3Abdel Rahim
12Dani Calvo
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
23N. Fonseca
11S. Colombatto
5Alberto Reina
8Santi Cazorla
7I. Chaira
19Álex Forés
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Oviedo+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.67points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-6-4
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.17
Oviedo · Away
0.56points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-12
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Getafe | L 1–3 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Girona | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Madrid | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Elche | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Sevilla | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 38 of 108 · 1.06 per game | 28 of 108 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Mallorca wins1 draws0 Oviedo wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 5 Dec 2025Oviedo0–0Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.73 | 2.24 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 38% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 32% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 54% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Mallorca | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.20 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.69 | 3.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.31 | 5.51 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.28 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 28/35 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 19/35 | 49% 17/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 14/35 | 31% 11/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 1.46 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 3.65 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 22/37 | 49% 18/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 17/37 | 32% 12/37 | |
| Mallorca | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.45 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.70 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Sánchez 99 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.22league 4.25
Red cards0.17league 0.28
Cards 5+67%league 46%
Fouls27.7league 24.5
Penalties0.24league 0.35
Home wins41%league 48%
Mallorca7 with this referee
Record4-0-3
Cards · opp.3.6 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L10 Nov 24H · Atletico Madrid0–11
- W12 May 23H · Cadiz1–05
- W18 Feb 23H · Villarreal4–25
- W22 Oct 22A · Valencia2–15
- W27 Aug 22A · Rayo Vallecano2–03
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca37 games · scored 44 · conceded 57
4
7
0-15
5
9
16-30
9
15
31-45
3
3
46-60
12
8
61-75
11
15
76-90
Oviedo36 games · scored 26 · conceded 57
2
6
0-15
2
10
16-30
8
9
31-45
5
8
46-60
4
10
61-75
5
14
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
