Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Mallorca
18th · 31 pts · 30 played
LDWLW
3–0Full time
Rayo Vallecano
13th · 35 pts · 30 played
WDDLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rayo Vallecano. Mallorca had 8 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 8.8 and had to travel 549 km.
Away travel549 kmRest days8 · 8.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Mallorca34%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Mallorca40%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano33%
Mallorca34%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano36%
Mallorca28%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano44%
Mallorca35%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano38%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 51
Team strength
MallorcaRayo Vallecano
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
50
AttackIn forecast
61
59
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaRayo Vallecano
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.97
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
73%
Scored inContext
63%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.87
ShotsContext
13.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
39%
On target shareContext
34%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
64%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.36
14.60
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.97
4.47
BlocksContext
3.67
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
70%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
376
PassesContext
416
302
Accurate passesContext
344
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.87
FoulsContext
12.57
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
11.23
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.47
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
60%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
13.40
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
39%
On target shareContext
34%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
70%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
5.10
BlocksContext
4.00
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
65%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
386
PassesContext
354
317
Accurate passesContext
280
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.80
FoulsContext
11.90
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel549 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 8.8La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 549 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 11.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
5Omar Mascarell
27David López
23Pablo Maffeo
8Manu Morlanes
10Darder
20Pablo Torre
12Samú Costa
15Zito Luvumbo
7V. Muriqi
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
1Dani Cárdenas(G)
22A. Espino
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
15Gerard Gumbau
23Óscar Valentín
4Pedro Díaz
18Álvaro García
11R. Nteka
12I. Akhomach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-4
- Scored
- 1.53
- Conceded
- 1.27
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.80points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-9
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Elche | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 31 of 87 · 1.07 per game | 32 of 87 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Mallorca wins2 draws2 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.56 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 11%
- 11 Jan 2026Rayo Vallecano2–1Mallorca
- 24 May 2025Rayo Vallecano0–0Mallorca
- 20 Oct 2024Mallorca1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 11 Feb 2024Mallorca2–1Rayo Vallecano
- 30 Sep 2023Rayo Vallecano2–2Mallorca
- 4 Jun 2023Mallorca3–0Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.97 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.13 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 37% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 43% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 37% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Mallorca | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.43 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.57 | 4.97 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.87 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 23/28 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 15/28 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 11/28 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 2.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.06 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 18/30 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 14/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Mallorca | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.10 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.50 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.37league 4.28
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+51%league 47%
Fouls24.8league 24.5
Penalties0.45league 0.36
Home wins41%league 49%
Mallorca2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D29 Nov 25H · Osasuna2–23
- L2 Nov 25A · Real Betis0–33
Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L28 Sep 25H · Sevilla0–14
- L19 May 24A · Barcelona0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca30 games · scored 36 · conceded 48
4
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
5
12
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
5
61-75
11
14
76-90
Rayo Vallecano30 games · scored 29 · conceded 35
2
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
10
4
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
5
61-75
5
10
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
