Mallorca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Mallorca
18th · 31 pts · 30 played
LDWLW
3–0Full time
Rayo Vallecano
13th · 35 pts · 30 played
WDDLW
Mallorca33.9%fair odds 2.95
Draw28.7%fair odds 3.48
Rayo Vallecano37.4%fair odds 2.68
Expected goals1.18 – 1.26total 2.44
Likeliest score1–113.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Mallorca ↓ · Rayo Vallecano → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 13.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Mallorca goals, columns Rayo Vallecano goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.6%7.33
- 0–110.2%9.76
- 1–09.6%10.39
- 0–09.4%10.65
- 1–28.1%12.28
- 2–17.7%13.03
- 0–26.9%14.55
- 2–06.1%16.37
- 2–24.8%20.73
- 1–33.4%29.31
Winning margin
4.7%
Mallorca by 3+
fair 21.39
9.8%
Mallorca by 2
fair 10.24
19.5%
Mallorca by 1
fair 5.14
28.7%
Draw
fair 3.48
20.7%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 4.83
11.0%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 9.10
5.7%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 17.55
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Mallorca goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Rayo Vallecano goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 33.9% | 34.8% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 28.7% | 27.6% | +1.2 pp |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 37.4% | 37.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.1% | 48.7% | -4.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.4% | 54.0% | -3.6 pp |
| Expected goals Mallorca | 1.18 | 1.28 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 1.26 | 1.34 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Mallorca win33.9%2.95
- Draw28.7%3.48
- Rayo Vallecano win37.4%2.68
- Double chance Mallorca or draw62.6%1.60
- Double chance Mallorca or Rayo Vallecano71.3%1.40
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw66.1%1.51
- Draw no bet Mallorca47.6%2.10
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano52.4%1.91
Goals
- Over 0.590.6%1.10
- Over 1.570.7%1.41
- Over 2.544.1%2.27
- Over 3.523.0%4.35
- Over 4.510.1%9.88
- Under 1.529.3%3.42
- Under 2.555.9%1.79
- Under 3.577.0%1.30
Both teams to score
- Yes50.4%1.99
- No49.6%2.01
- Yes and over 2.536.7%2.72
- Mallorca win and yes14.8%6.74
- Draw and yes19.3%5.17
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes16.2%6.18
Team goals
- Mallorca over 0.569.4%1.44
- Mallorca over 1.533.2%3.01
- Mallorca over 2.511.7%8.53
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.571.5%1.40
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.535.8%2.79
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.513.3%7.51
- Mallorca clean sheet28.5%3.51
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet30.6%3.27
- Mallorca win to nil19.1%5.25
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil21.2%4.72
Handicap
- Mallorca −1.514.4%6.93
- Mallorca −2.54.7%21.39
- Rayo Vallecano +1.585.6%1.17
- Rayo Vallecano +2.595.3%1.05
- Rayo Vallecano −1.516.7%5.99
- Mallorca +1.583.3%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored306
Favourite won53.3%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right58.2%
BTTS called right57.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 62 | 37.8% | 35.5% |
| 40–50% | 118 | 44.5% | 47.5% |
| 50–60% | 60 | 54.7% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 34 | 64.0% | 61.8% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 74.4% | 84.0% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 246 of 306 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5775 | 0.5701 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.2% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 53.7% | 54.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 246 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 306 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.