Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Mallorca. Mallorca had 14.1 days of rest, Real Madrid 12.8 and had to travel 549 km.
Away travel549 kmRest days14.1 · 12.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Mallorca15%
Draw21%
Real Madrid64%
Mallorca14%
Draw21%
Real Madrid66%
Mallorca14%
Draw21%
Real Madrid65%
Mallorca11%
Draw18%
Real Madrid71%
Mallorca15%
Draw21%
Real Madrid64%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 54
Team strength
Mallorca
Real Madrid
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
50
AttackIn forecast
89
59
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaReal Madrid
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.17
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
72%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
10.00
ShotsContext
17.59
4.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.69
39%
On target shareContext
38%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
10.79
64%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.59
Shots allowedContext
9.83
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.36
4.52
BlocksContext
3.19
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.32
70%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
378
PassesContext
581
304
Accurate passesContext
522
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.11
10.72
FoulsContext
10.14
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
13.14
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
60%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
14.40
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
41%
On target shareContext
42%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
69%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.25
16.40
Shots allowedContext
11.50
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
5.30
BlocksContext
3.78
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
403
PassesContext
573
330
Accurate passesContext
516
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.30
FoulsContext
9.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel549 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 12.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 549 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
5Omar Mascarell
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
8Manu Morlanes
10Darder
12Samú Costa
20Pablo Torre
15Zito Luvumbo
7V. Muriqi
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
13A. Lunin(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
22A. Rüdiger
12T. Alexander-Arnold
15A. Güler
6E. Camavinga
14A. Tchouaméni
37Manuel Ángel Morán
10K. Mbappé
21Brahim Díaz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Madrid-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.29
Real Madrid · Away
2.14points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-2
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A | W 5–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 3–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 28 of 84 · 1.00 per game | 66 of 84 · 2.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Mallorca wins1 draws7 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.22
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets11% · 33%
- 30 Aug 2025Real Madrid2–1Mallorca
- 14 May 2025Real Madrid2–1Mallorca
- 18 Aug 2024Mallorca1–1Real Madrid
- 13 Apr 2024Mallorca0–1Real Madrid
- 3 Jan 2024Real Madrid1–0Mallorca
- 5 Feb 2023Mallorca1–0Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 3.07 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 62% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 55% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 10% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Mallorca | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 6.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 3.65 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.84 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 22/27 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 11/27 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.45 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 2.69 | |
| Match total | 4.69 | 4.55 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 17/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 13/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Mallorca | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.60 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.90 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 4.22
Red cards0.33league 0.28
Cards 5+50%league 47%
Fouls24.7league 24.4
Penalties0.28league 0.36
Home wins48%league 49%
Mallorca3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Jan 26A · Atletico Madrid0–31
- L30 Aug 25A · Real Madrid1–20
- L13 Apr 24H · Real Madrid0–12
Real Madrid6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25H · Mallorca2–12
- W23 Apr 25A · Getafe1–01
- W13 Apr 24A · Mallorca1–01
- D4 Feb 24H · Atletico Madrid1–10
- W11 Nov 23H · Valencia5–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca29 games · scored 34 · conceded 47
4
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
4
12
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
5
61-75
10
13
76-90
Real Madrid29 games · scored 63 · conceded 26
5
1
0-15
8
3
16-30
14
6
31-45
11
6
46-60
9
5
61-75
16
5
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 22 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
