Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 45). Absences weigh more on Real Sociedad. Mallorca had 6 days of rest, Real Sociedad 7.2 and had to travel 567 km.
Away travel567 kmRest days6 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Mallorca37%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad36%
Mallorca37%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad36%
Mallorca36%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad37%
Mallorca30%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad43%
Mallorca38%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad36%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 13
Team strength
Mallorca
Real Sociedad
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
50
AttackIn forecast
62
59
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaReal Sociedad
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.48
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
72%
Scored inContext
88%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
4%
9.56
ShotsContext
12.68
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.84
39%
On target shareContext
38%
6.35
Shots in the boxContext
7.88
64%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.80
14.72
Shots allowedContext
12.60
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
4.60
BlocksContext
3.64
3.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
70%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
370
PassesContext
424
294
Accurate passesContext
350
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.92
FoulsContext
14.24
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
11.96
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
70%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.80
ShotsContext
11.50
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
40%
On target shareContext
44%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
72%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
16%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.67
15.70
Shots allowedContext
13.60
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
5.50
BlocksContext
3.80
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
67%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
369
PassesContext
402
293
Accurate passesContext
332
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.00
FoulsContext
12.90
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,000 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel567 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 567 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,000 km | 705 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
12Samú Costa
5Omar Mascarell
10Darder
17J. Virgili
7V. Muriqi
18Mateo Joseph
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
5Zubeldia
2J. Aramburu
8Beñat Turrientes
4Jon Gorrotxategi
21A. Zakharyan
18Carlos Soler
11Gonçalo Guedes
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Real Sociedad-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-3
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.33
Real Sociedad · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-5
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Sevilla | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game | 29 of 72 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Mallorca wins1 draws6 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game0.56 – 1.00
Over 2.511%
Both scored22%
Clean sheets22% · 56%
- 24 Sep 2025Real Sociedad1–0Mallorca
- 12 Apr 2025Real Sociedad0–2Mallorca
- 17 Sep 2024Mallorca1–0Real Sociedad
- 18 Feb 2024Mallorca1–2Real Sociedad
- 21 Oct 2023Real Sociedad1–0Mallorca
- 12 Mar 2023Mallorca1–1Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.48 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 84% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 4% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 12% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Mallorca | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.42 | 5.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.92 | 4.48 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 10.24 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 20/24 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 13/24 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 11/24 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 4.64 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 14/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Mallorca | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.10 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.20 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.50 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.85league 4.19
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+23%league 46%
Fouls26.3league 24.5
Penalties0.23league 0.38
Home wins77%league 48%
MallorcaNo previous matches with this referee.
Real SociedadNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca25 games · scored 29 · conceded 41
4
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
3
10
31-45
1
2
46-60
8
3
61-75
9
11
76-90
Real Sociedad25 games · scored 37 · conceded 38
1
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
9
10
31-45
7
9
46-60
6
3
61-75
10
9
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
3
5
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
