Mallorca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Mallorca36.9%fair odds 2.71
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.66
Real Sociedad35.8%fair odds 2.79
Expected goals1.34 – 1.32total 2.67
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Mallorca ↓ · Real Sociedad → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Mallorca goals, columns Real Sociedad goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.69
- 1–08.7%11.50
- 0–18.5%11.71
- 2–18.3%12.04
- 1–28.2%12.25
- 0–07.6%13.14
- 2–06.3%15.92
- 0–26.1%16.46
- 2–25.5%18.23
- 3–13.7%26.88
Winning margin
6.1%
Mallorca by 3+
fair 16.46
10.9%
Mallorca by 2
fair 9.15
19.9%
Mallorca by 1
fair 5.04
27.3%
Draw
fair 3.66
19.5%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 5.13
10.6%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 9.46
5.7%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 17.43
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Mallorca goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Real Sociedad goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 36.9% | 37.9% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 27.3% | 25.9% | +1.4 pp |
| Real Sociedad win | 35.8% | 36.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 55.8% | -6.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.9% | 59.5% | -4.6 pp |
| Expected goals Mallorca | 1.34 | 1.48 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.32 | 1.44 | -0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Mallorca win36.9%2.71
- Draw27.3%3.66
- Real Sociedad win35.8%2.79
- Double chance Mallorca or draw64.2%1.56
- Double chance Mallorca or Real Sociedad72.7%1.38
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw63.1%1.58
- Draw no bet Mallorca50.7%1.97
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad49.3%2.03
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.2%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.8%3.59
- Over 4.513.2%7.57
- Under 1.524.8%4.03
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.2%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.9%1.82
- No45.1%2.22
- Yes and over 2.541.8%2.39
- Mallorca win and yes17.8%5.62
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Real Sociedad win and yes17.4%5.76
Team goals
- Mallorca over 0.573.9%1.35
- Mallorca over 1.538.9%2.57
- Mallorca over 2.515.3%6.53
- Real Sociedad over 0.573.3%1.36
- Real Sociedad over 1.538.1%2.63
- Real Sociedad over 2.514.8%6.76
- Mallorca clean sheet26.7%3.75
- Real Sociedad clean sheet26.1%3.83
- Mallorca win to nil19.1%5.25
- Real Sociedad win to nil18.5%5.42
Handicap
- Mallorca −1.517.0%5.88
- Mallorca −2.56.1%16.46
- Real Sociedad +1.583.0%1.20
- Real Sociedad +2.593.9%1.06
- Real Sociedad −1.516.3%6.13
- Mallorca +1.583.7%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored252
Favourite won53.6%
Avg chance given to result41.6%
1X2 Brier0.570
Over 2.5 called right58.7%
BTTS called right57.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 44 | 37.8% | 36.4% |
| 40–50% | 105 | 44.6% | 45.7% |
| 50–60% | 50 | 54.7% | 58.0% |
| 60–70% | 26 | 64.3% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 74.3% | 86.4% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 219 of 252 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5700 | 0.5623 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 54.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 219 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 252 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.