Mallorca vs Valencia – 21 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 33 Tue, Apr 21 · 18:00 Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca

Mallorca 15th · 34 pts · 31 played DWLWW

1–1Full time

Valencia 14th · 35 pts · 31 played WLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Mallorca were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Valencia. Mallorca had 9.1 days of rest, Valencia 10.1 and had to travel 260 km.

Away travel260 kmRest days9.1 · 10.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Mallorca40%

Draw28%

Valencia32%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.17

Mallorca43%

Draw27%

Valencia31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.21

Mallorca40%

Draw28%

Valencia32%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.15

Mallorca33%

Draw28%

Valencia39%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.31

Mallorca41%

Draw27%

Valencia32%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.26

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Palma de Mallorca)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 41

Team strength

Mallorca

Valencia

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

50 AttackIn forecast 39

59 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Mallorca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Mallorca

Valencia

1.26 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.55 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.48

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

74% Scored inContext 74%

13% Clean sheetsContext 26%

9.94 ShotsContext 11.42

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.23

39% On target shareContext 27%

6.72 Shots in the boxContext 7.55

65% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 10%

1.95 OffsidesContext 2.09

14.55 Shots allowedContext 11.42

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.42 BlocksContext 2.83

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.04

71% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 49%

374 PassesContext 408

301 Accurate passesContext 336

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.90 FoulsContext 11.94

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.77

2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.81

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.00 ShotsContext 12.30

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

40% On target shareContext 28%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

71% Box shareContext 64%

15% ConversionContext 10%

1.38 OffsidesContext 2.29

15.80 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

5.10 BlocksContext 2.10

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

66% Save rateContext 70%

46% PossessionIn forecast 49%

383 PassesContext 407

315 Accurate passesContext 339

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.74

11.30 FoulsContext 11.90

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Mallorca

Rest9.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest10.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel260 km275 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Mallorca	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.1La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr	10.1La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	260 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	275 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Mallorca Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

1Leo Román(G)

22J. Mojica 5Omar Mascarell 24M. Valjent 23Pablo Maffeo

8Manu Morlanes 10Darder 12Samú Costa

20Pablo Torre

11T. Asano 7V. Muriqi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 18Pepelu 5César Tárrega 12Thierry Correia

17L. Ramazani 2G. Rodríguez 23F. Ugrinic 16Diego López

15L. Beltrán 6U. Sadiq

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Mallorca Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Mallorca+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Valencia-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Mallorca · Home 1.75points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-4
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.19

Valencia · Away 0.75points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-10
Scored: 0.81
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Mallorca	Valencia
Rayo Vallecano	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Real Madrid	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 HL 0–4 A
Elche	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Espanyol	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	W 3–2 HD 2–2 A
Osasuna	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Real Sociedad	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Celta Vigo	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	L 2–3 HL 1–4 A
Real Betis	L 1–2 HL 0–3 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Barcelona	L 0–3 AL 0–3 H	L 0–6 A
Sevilla	W 4–1 HW 3–1 A	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Athletic Club	W 3–2 HL 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Girona	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Oviedo	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Villarreal	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H
Getafe	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Levante	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Alaves	W 1–0 H	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A
Points	33 of 90 · 1.10 per game	34 of 90 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Mallorca wins4 draws2 Valencia wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.89 Over 2.533% Both scored56% Clean sheets22% · 33%

19 Dec 2025Valencia1–1Mallorca
30 Mar 2025Valencia1–0Mallorca
29 Nov 2024Mallorca2–1Valencia
30 Mar 2024Valencia0–0Mallorca
7 Oct 2023Mallorca1–1Valencia
25 May 2023Mallorca1–0Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Mallorca	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.26	1.10
Conceded per game	1.55	1.48
Match goals	2.81	2.58	2.50
Over 1.5	84%	77%
Over 2.5	68%	42%	46%
Over 3.5	23%	23%
Both teams scored	65%	52%	51%
Clean sheets	13%	26%
Failed to score	26%	26%
Games	31	31

	Mallorca	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.30
Match goals	3.00	2.50	2.50
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Mallorca	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.52	5.26
Corners conceded	6.59	4.85
Match total	10.11	10.11	9.58
Over 8.5	83% 24/29	67% 18/27
Over 9.5	55% 16/29	52% 14/27
Over 10.5	41% 12/29	52% 14/27
Cards
Cards	2.42	1.84
Opponent cards	2.29	2.42
Match total	4.71	4.26	4.55
Over 3.5	61% 19/31	65% 20/31
Over 4.5	48% 15/31	52% 16/31

	Mallorca	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.44
Corners conceded	6.11	3.89
Match total	10.11	9.33	9.58
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.30
Match total	4.90	4.10	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.68league 4.29

Red cards0.29league 0.28

Cards 5+56%league 48%

Fouls23.6league 24.5

Penalties0.32league 0.36

Home wins46%league 49%

Mallorca1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W2 Feb 26H · Sevilla4–11

Valencia4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

L13 Dec 25A · Atletico Madrid1–21
L16 May 24A · Real Sociedad0–12
D17 Feb 24H · Sevilla0–00
D25 Nov 23H · Celta Vigo0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.