Malmo FF
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Malmo FF32.9%fair odds 3.04
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.68
FK Crvena Zvezda39.9%fair odds 2.51
Expected goals1.26 – 1.41total 2.67
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FK Crvena Zvezda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Malmo FF ↓ · FK Crvena Zvezda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Malmo FF goals, columns FK Crvena Zvezda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.72
- 0–19.1%10.96
- 1–28.7%11.53
- 1–08.1%12.38
- 2–17.7%12.91
- 0–07.6%13.19
- 0–26.9%14.51
- 2–05.5%18.20
- 2–25.5%18.31
- 1–34.1%24.52
Winning margin
4.9%
Malmo FF by 3+
fair 20.59
9.6%
Malmo FF by 2
fair 10.46
18.5%
Malmo FF by 1
fair 5.41
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.68
20.8%
FK Crvena Zvezda by 1
fair 4.81
12.0%
FK Crvena Zvezda by 2
fair 8.34
7.1%
FK Crvena Zvezda by 3+
fair 14.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Malmo FF goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
9%3
4%4+
FK Crvena Zvezda goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 32.9% | 33.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.0% | +0.2 pp |
| FK Crvena Zvezda win | 39.9% | 39.9% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 50.8% | -1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.8% | 55.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Malmo FF | 1.26 | 1.28 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals FK Crvena Zvezda | 1.41 | 1.43 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Malmo FF win32.9%3.04
- Draw27.2%3.68
- FK Crvena Zvezda win39.9%2.51
- Double chance Malmo FF or draw60.1%1.66
- Double chance Malmo FF or FK Crvena Zvezda72.8%1.37
- Double chance FK Crvena Zvezda or draw67.1%1.49
- Draw no bet Malmo FF45.2%2.21
- Draw no bet FK Crvena Zvezda54.8%1.82
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.2%1.33
- Over 2.549.9%2.01
- Over 3.527.9%3.58
- Over 4.513.3%7.55
- Under 1.524.8%4.04
- Under 2.550.1%2.00
- Under 3.572.1%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.8%1.83
- No45.2%2.21
- Yes and over 2.541.8%2.39
- Malmo FF win and yes16.1%6.22
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- FK Crvena Zvezda win and yes19.1%5.24
Team goals
- Malmo FF over 0.571.6%1.40
- Malmo FF over 1.535.9%2.79
- Malmo FF over 2.513.4%7.49
- FK Crvena Zvezda over 0.575.6%1.32
- FK Crvena Zvezda over 1.541.2%2.43
- FK Crvena Zvezda over 2.516.9%5.92
- Malmo FF clean sheet24.4%4.10
- FK Crvena Zvezda clean sheet28.4%3.52
- Malmo FF win to nil16.8%5.94
- FK Crvena Zvezda win to nil20.8%4.80
Handicap
- Malmo FF −1.514.4%6.94
- Malmo FF −2.54.9%20.59
- FK Crvena Zvezda +1.585.6%1.17
- FK Crvena Zvezda +2.595.1%1.05
- FK Crvena Zvezda −1.519.1%5.23
- Malmo FF +1.580.9%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored108
Favourite won58.3%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.553
Over 2.5 called right55.6%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 13 | 38.3% | 38.5% |
| 40–50% | 42 | 44.8% | 45.2% |
| 50–60% | 38 | 54.7% | 76.3% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.0% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 74.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 90 of 108 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5451 | 0.5366 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 44.2% |
| Favourite won | 58.9% | 64.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 90 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Panathinaikos 0–0 Plzen38·27·36
- ✗FCSB 4–3 Feyenoord28·26·46
- ✓FC Basel 1893 1–2 Aston Villa19·23·58
- ✗Celta Vigo 1–2 Bologna46·26·29
- ✓Brann 0–4 Fenerbahce20·23·57
- ✗Celtic 0–3 AS Roma38·26·37
- ✓FC Porto 2–1 Malmo FF76·16·9
- ✓SC Freiburg 1–0 Red Bull Salzburg53·24·23
- ✓Lyon 2–1 GO Ahead Eagles64·21·15
- ✓Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Rangers49·25·26
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 108 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.