UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 22 · 17:45 Eleda Stadion, Malmö
Malmo FF 34th · 1 pts · 6 played
0–1Full time
FK Crvena Zvezda 17th · 10 pts · 6 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

FK Crvena Zvezda were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 27). Malmo FF had 41.9 days of rest, FK Crvena Zvezda 42 and had to travel 1,312 km.

Away travel1,312 kmRest days41.9 · 42Matches / 14d0 · 0
Malmo FF33%
Draw27%
FK Crvena Zvezda40%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.41
Malmo FF34%
Draw27%
FK Crvena Zvezda39%
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40
Malmo FF33%
Draw27%
FK Crvena Zvezda39%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.38
Malmo FF26%
Draw26%
FK Crvena Zvezda47%
Expected goals 1.12 – 1.58
Malmo FF33%
Draw27%
FK Crvena Zvezda40%
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.43
Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malmö)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.18
  • Matches 89

Team strength

Malmo FFFK Crvena Zvezda
27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43
25 Current StrengthIn forecast 42
24 AttackIn forecast 40
20 DefenceIn forecast 39
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Malmo FF

Attack—
Defense risk—

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Malmo FFFK Crvena Zvezda
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83
0.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.22
2.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.39
50% Scored inContext 83%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
7.17 ShotsContext 11.83
2.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.17
33% On target shareContext 27%
5.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.83
67% Box shareContext 66%
7% ConversionContext 7%
1.67 OffsidesContext 2.33
17.83 Shots allowedContext 12.50
7.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33
4.33 BlocksContext 3.00
5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
73% Save rateContext 70%
43% PossessionIn forecast 44%
396 PassesContext 385
321 Accurate passesContext 304
81% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.61 Team ratingContext 6.82
10.83 FoulsContext 11.50
12.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.33
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.17
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
0.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.22
2.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.12
50% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
7.80 ShotsContext 13.33
3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78
36% On target shareContext 28%
5.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.22
67% Box shareContext 68%
10% ConversionContext 8%
1.43 OffsidesContext 2.50
15.00 Shots allowedContext 12.33
5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56
4.10 BlocksContext 2.89
4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44
71% Save rateContext 69%
45% PossessionIn forecast 46%
419 PassesContext 379
344 Accurate passesContext 298
82% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.61 Team ratingContext 6.87
10.70 FoulsContext 11.78
13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.44
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Malmo FF
Rest41.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
FK Crvena Zvezda
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,312 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Malmo FF FK Crvena Zvezda
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match41.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,312 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one7.17.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Malmo FF Confirmed XI
4-4-2
33M. Ellborg(G)
25Gabriel Busanello 19C. Rösler 18P. Jansson 2O. Karlsson
37A. Skogmar 40K. Busuladžić 48Theodor Lundbergh 38A. Bolin
11E. Ekong 20E. Botheim
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
FK Crvena Zvezda Confirmed XI
4-1-4-1
1Matheus(G)
23N. Tiknizyan 5Rodrigão 13M. Veljković 66Y. Seol
33R. Krunić
10A. Katai 21T. Elšnik 22V. Kostov 37V. Lučić
89M. Arnautović
+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Malmo FF Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FK Crvena Zvezda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Malmo FF-0.5 pp
  • Draw-0.2 pp
  • FK Crvena Zvezda+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Malmo FF · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.33
FK Crvena Zvezda · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentMalmo FFFK Crvena Zvezda
FC Porto L 1–2 A L 1–2 A
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Malmo FFFK Crvena ZvezdaForecast
Scored per game 0.500.83
Conceded per game 2.000.83
Match goals 2.501.67 2.67
Over 1.5 83%50%
Over 2.5 67%17% 50%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 50%33% 55%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66
Malmo FFFK Crvena ZvezdaForecast
Scored per game 0.500.83
Conceded per game 2.000.83
Match goals 2.501.67 2.67
Over 1.5 83%50%
Over 2.5 67%17% 50%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 50%33% 55%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Malmo FFFK Crvena ZvezdaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.754.83
Corners conceded4.254.17
Match total8.009.008.96
Over 8.550% 2/450% 3/6
Over 9.525% 1/450% 3/6
Over 10.525% 1/450% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.332.50
Opponent cards2.671.83
Match total5.004.334.32
Over 3.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 4.567% 4/650% 3/6
Malmo FFFK Crvena ZvezdaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.865.44
Corners conceded4.574.00
Match total8.439.448.96
Over 8.557% 4/744% 4/9
Over 9.543% 3/744% 4/9
Over 10.543% 3/744% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.202.50
Opponent cards2.301.70
Match total4.504.204.32
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 89 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 4.09
Red cards0.19league 0.20
Cards 5+47%league 42%
Fouls23.3league 24.4
Penalties0.18league 0.35
Home wins34%league 50%
Malmo FF1 with this referee
Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.7.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1
  • L23 Jan 25H · Twente2–37
FK Crvena Zvezda

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Malmo FF6 games · scored 3 · conceded 12
1 0-15
3 16-30
1 4 31-45
2 46-60
61-75
2 2 76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda6 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 1 76-90
Malmo FF10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1 1 0-15
3 16-30
2 6 31-45
3 46-60
1 2 61-75
4 2 76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
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