Malmo FF vs Ludogorets – 24 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 24 · 20:00 Eleda Stadion, Malmö

Malmo FF

1–2Full time

Ludogorets

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Malmo FF were slight favourites.

Malmo FF were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 25). Malmo FF had ? days of rest, Ludogorets ? and had to travel 1,653 km.

Away travel1,653 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Malmo FF49%

Draw25%

Ludogorets25%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.13

Malmo FF49%

Draw26%

Ludogorets25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Malmo FF49%

Draw25%

Ludogorets25%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.13

Malmo FF42%

Draw27%

Ludogorets32%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.27

Malmo FF49%

Draw26%

Ludogorets25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Malmö)

No weather data yet

Referee · LithuaniaManfredas Lukjancukas

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 18

Team strength

Malmo FF

Ludogorets

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

24 AttackIn forecast 27

20 DefenceIn forecast 28

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Malmo FF

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ludogorets

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Malmo FF

Ludogorets

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.00 ShotsContext 15.67

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

42% On target shareContext 33%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.25

69% Box shareContext 64%

15% ConversionContext 6%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.17 Shots allowedContext 13.00

3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.00 BlocksContext 3.00

2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

57% Save rateContext 69%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

426 PassesContext 408

346 Accurate passesContext 332

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.83 FoulsContext 13.83

14.17 Fouls sufferedContext 12.83

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Malmo FF

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ludogorets

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,653 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Malmo FF	Ludogorets
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,653 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Malmo FF Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

30R. Olsen(G)

25Gabriel Busanello 19C. Rösler 18P. Jansson 17J. Stryger Larsen

29S. Hakšabanović 37A. Skogmar 7O. Rosengren 38A. Bolin

10A. Christiansen

32D. Guðjohnsen

Ludogorets Confirmed XI

1S. Padt(G) 2E. Andersson 15E. Kurtulus 4Dinis Almeida 17Son 23Deroy Duarte 30Pedro Naressi 14P. Stanić 77Erick Marcus 29E. Bille 11Caio Vidal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Malmo FF Absences are shown before kick-off

Ludogorets Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Malmo FF+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Ludogorets+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Malmo FF · Home No home games yet this season.

Ludogorets · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Malmo FF wins0 draws1 Ludogorets wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

24 Aug 2021Ludogorets2–1Malmo FF
18 Aug 2021Malmo FF2–0Ludogorets

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Malmo FF	Ludogorets	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Malmo FF	Ludogorets	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Malmo FF	Ludogorets	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Malmo FF	Ludogorets	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.00
Corners conceded	6.00	6.00
Match total	11.00	10.00	9.50
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	80% 4/5	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.30
Opponent cards	2.20	2.80
Match total	4.40	5.10	4.50
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Manfredas Lukjancukas Lithuania · 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.50league 4.50

Red cards0.39league 0.00

Cards 5+67%league 50%

Fouls22.3league 32.0

Penalties0.39league 0.00

Home wins56%league 50%

Malmo FF

No previous matches with this referee.

Ludogorets

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.