Manchester City vs Brentford – 9 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 36 Sat, May 9 · 17:30 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City 2nd · 71 pts · 34 played DWWWD

3–0Full time

Brentford 8th · 51 pts · 35 played DDDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were clear favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 74). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brentford. Manchester City had 4.9 days of rest, Brentford 7.1 and had to travel 257 km.

Away travel257 kmRest days4.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Manchester City63%

Draw19%

Brentford18%

Expected goals 2.46 – 1.27

Manchester City60%

Draw23%

Brentford17%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.94

Manchester City63%

Draw19%

Brentford17%

Expected goals 2.44 – 1.24

Manchester City55%

Draw21%

Brentford24%

Expected goals 2.19 – 1.42

Manchester City60%

Draw21%

Brentford19%

Expected goals 2.20 – 1.17

Over 2.5 72% Both score 66% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 86

Team strength

Manchester City

Brentford

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

92 AttackIn forecast 73

82 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester City

Brentford

2.03 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.49

0.94 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.31

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

88% Scored inContext 69%

41% Clean sheetsContext 29%

15.44 ShotsContext 10.74

5.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 37%

11.32 Shots in the boxContext 8.19

73% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 14%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.08

9.91 Shots allowedContext 12.57

3.41 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.12

3.19 BlocksContext 4.33

2.52 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

72% Save rateContext 69%

61% PossessionIn forecast 48%

590 PassesContext 397

523 Accurate passesContext 315

89% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.11 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.85 FoulsContext 10.66

11.35 Fouls sufferedContext 9.38

1.76 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 34 and 35 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

90% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

18.60 ShotsContext 11.80

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

34% On target shareContext 32%

13.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

72% Box shareContext 73%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.60 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.67 BlocksContext 3.63

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

67% Save rateContext 67%

63% PossessionIn forecast 50%

619 PassesContext 414

556 Accurate passesContext 326

90% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.00 FoulsContext 9.20

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel257 km515 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 4 May	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	257 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	515 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25G. Donnarumma(G)

33N. O'Reilly 6N. Aké 15A. Guéhi 27M. Nunes

20Bernardo Silva 4T. Reijnders

11J. Doku 10M. Cherki 42A. Semenyo

9E. Haaland

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

24M. Damsgaard 2A. Hickey 8M. Jensen 18Y. Yarmoliuk

9Thiago 7K. Schade

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester City-0.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brentford+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 2.44points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 12-3-1
Scored: 2.38
Conceded: 0.75

Brentford · Away 1.18points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-9
Scored: 1.24
Conceded: 1.59

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Manchester City	Brentford
Everton	D 3–3 AW 2–0 H	D 2–2 HW 4–2 A
Burnley	W 1–0 AW 5–1 H	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H
Arsenal	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Chelsea	W 3–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
West Ham	D 1–1 AW 3–0 H	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A
Nottingham Forest	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Leeds	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Newcastle	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H
Fulham	W 3–0 HW 5–4 A	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 AW 3–0 H	W 3–2 H
Tottenham	D 2–2 AL 0–2 H	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Wolves	W 2–0 HW 4–0 A	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A
Manchester United	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H
Brighton	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Sunderland	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Crystal Palace	W 3–0 A	L 0–2 A
Bournemouth	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Points	68 of 99 · 2.06 per game	51 of 102 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

6 Manchester City wins1 draws2 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.44 – 0.78 Over 2.544% Both scored44% Clean sheets44% · 11%

5 Oct 2025Brentford0–1Manchester City
14 Jan 2025Brentford2–2Manchester City
14 Sep 2024Manchester City2–1Brentford
20 Feb 2024Manchester City1–0Brentford
5 Feb 2024Brentford1–3Manchester City
28 May 2023Brentford1–0Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	2.03	1.49
Conceded per game	0.94	1.31
Match goals	2.97	2.80	3.73
Over 1.5	85%	80%
Over 2.5	62%	51%	72%
Over 3.5	24%	37%
Both teams scored	50%	51%	66%
Clean sheets	41%	29%
Failed to score	12%	31%
Games	34	35

	Manchester City	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.30
Conceded per game	0.90	1.20
Match goals	2.90	2.50	3.73
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	72%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	66%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	6.18	4.97
Corners conceded	3.88	5.09
Match total	10.06	10.06	10.05
Over 8.5	67% 22/33	68% 23/34
Over 9.5	52% 17/33	62% 21/34
Over 10.5	39% 13/33	53% 18/34
Cards
Cards	1.76	1.83
Opponent cards	2.12	1.86
Match total	3.88	3.69	3.93
Over 3.5	65% 22/34	54% 19/35
Over 4.5	35% 12/34	37% 13/35

	Manchester City	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	8.80	4.70
Corners conceded	3.60	4.60
Match total	12.40	9.30	10.05
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.40
Opponent cards	2.20	2.20
Match total	3.80	3.60	3.93
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.80

Red cards0.20league 0.12

Cards 5+36%league 39%

Fouls22.3league 21.6

Penalties0.29league 0.21

Home wins49%league 42%

Manchester City

No previous matches with this referee.

Brentford5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

D6 Apr 24A · Aston Villa3–32
D22 Apr 23H · Aston Villa1–13
W15 Mar 23A · Southampton2–02
W14 Oct 22H · Brighton2–03
W7 May 22H · Southampton3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.