Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester City
2nd · 74 pts · 35 played
WWWDW
3–0Full time
Crystal Palace
15th · 44 pts · 35 played
WDLLD
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Crystal Palace. Manchester City had 4.1 days of rest, Crystal Palace 3.3 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days4.1 · 3.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester City70%
Draw17%
Crystal Palace13%
Manchester City65%
Draw21%
Crystal Palace14%
Manchester City70%
Draw17%
Crystal Palace13%
Manchester City62%
Draw20%
Crystal Palace19%
Manchester City67%
Draw19%
Crystal Palace14%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 140
Team strength
Manchester CityCrystal Palace
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
92
AttackIn forecast
64
82
DefenceIn forecast
54
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityCrystal Palace
2.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
0.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.26
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
89%
Scored inContext
69%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
34%
15.71
ShotsContext
11.77
5.51
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
35%
On target shareContext
32%
11.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.71
73%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.24
9.74
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.37
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.35
3.13
BlocksContext
3.22
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
73%
Save rateContext
71%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
587
PassesContext
399
519
Accurate passesContext
313
89%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.80
FoulsContext
10.77
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
9.77
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
19.60
ShotsContext
13.60
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
37%
13.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
71%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
9.70
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.44
BlocksContext
4.00
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
65%
Save rateContext
74%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
619
PassesContext
397
556
Accurate passesContext
323
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.93
8.60
FoulsContext
12.50
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Crystal Palace
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Premier League 2025-2026, 9 May | 3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 301 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
24J. Gvardiol
15A. Guéhi
45A. Khusanov
27M. Nunes
20Bernardo Silva
47P. Foden
21R. Aït-Nouri
26Savinho
7O. Marmoush
42A. Semenyo
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
3T. Mitchell
23J. Canvot
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
2D. Muñoz
10Yeremy Pino
8J. Lerma
19W. Hughes
11B. Johnson
14J. Mateta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Crystal Palace+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.47points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-3-1
- Scored
- 2.41
- Conceded
- 0.71
Crystal Palace · Away
1.35points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-8
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.35
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Everton | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Burnley | W 1–0 AW 5–1 H | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Arsenal | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Leeds | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Fulham | W 3–0 HW 5–4 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H | W 3–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Bournemouth | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Points | 71 of 102 · 2.09 per game | 44 of 102 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
6 Manchester City wins3 draws1 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game2.30 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 14 Dec 2025Crystal Palace0–3Manchester City
- 12 Apr 2025Manchester City5–2Crystal Palace
- 7 Dec 2024Crystal Palace2–2Manchester City
- 6 Apr 2024Crystal Palace2–4Manchester City
- 16 Dec 2023Manchester City2–2Crystal Palace
- 11 Mar 2023Crystal Palace0–1Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.06 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.91 | 1.26 | |
| Match goals | 2.97 | 2.34 | 3.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 51% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 51% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 34% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 31% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Manchester City | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 3.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.29 | 4.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.82 | 5.06 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.29 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 23/34 | 54% 19/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 18/34 | 46% 16/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 14/34 | 34% 12/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 23/35 | 66% 23/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 13/35 | 51% 18/35 | |
| Manchester City | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.30 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 12.60 | 9.40 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 140 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.80
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+45%league 39%
Fouls21.1league 21.6
Penalties0.21league 0.21
Home wins47%league 42%
Manchester City7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D21 Sep 25A · Arsenal1–12
- L14 Jan 23A · Manchester United1–20
- W28 Dec 22A · Leeds3–13
- W8 May 22H · Newcastle5–01
- W1 Jan 22A · Arsenal2–12
Crystal Palace8 with this referee
Record2-3-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W31 Aug 25A · Aston Villa3–03
- D27 Apr 24A · Fulham1–12
- L19 Mar 23A · Arsenal1–41
- D28 Aug 21A · West Ham2–20
- L7 Mar 21A · Tottenham1–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City35 games · scored 72 · conceded 32
9
0-15
9
4
16-30
20
5
31-45
9
6
46-60
14
10
61-75
11
7
76-90
Crystal Palace35 games · scored 38 · conceded 44
2
4
0-15
5
16-30
12
17
31-45
1
7
46-60
8
6
61-75
10
10
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
