Premier League Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 19 · 15:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City 1st · 21 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Hull City 9th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel129 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Manchester City—%
Draw—%
Hull City—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Manchester)

Forecast from 4 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester City and Hull City. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Manchester CityHull City
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
91 Current StrengthIn forecast 37
92 AttackIn forecast 37
82 DefenceIn forecast 50
93 Form indexContext 36
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Hull City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester CityHull City
2.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.20 xGVia Att/Def 0.98
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.16
100% Scored inContext 71%
43% Clean sheetsContext 43%
14.57 ShotsContext 10.71
5.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
36% On target shareContext 32%
10.57 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
70% Box shareContext 45%
19% ConversionContext 11%
2.17 OffsidesContext 1.40
11.43 Shots allowedContext 14.57
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.86
3.00 BlocksContext 4.29
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71
72% Save rateContext 77%
64% PossessionIn forecast 32%
635 PassesContext 275
567 Accurate passesContext 197
89% Pass accuracyContext 72%
7.23 Team ratingContext 6.75
10.71 FoulsContext 10.86
14.57 Fouls sufferedContext 7.57
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.14
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
100% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 50%
16.50 ShotsContext 10.30
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
36% On target shareContext 37%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.88
69% Box shareContext 50%
15% ConversionContext 12%
1.89 OffsidesContext 1.57
11.20 Shots allowedContext 13.80
4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
2.50 BlocksContext 4.10
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
68% Save rateContext 77%
62% PossessionIn forecast 33%
606 PassesContext 267
541 Accurate passesContext 182
89% Pass accuracyContext 68%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.82
11.00 FoulsContext 10.10
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,283 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts
Hull City
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel129 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 3 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Fulham0–10.8 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Everton2–21.0 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Newcastle1–20.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Chelsea2–20.6 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Aston Villa0–00.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester City Hull City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Dec7Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km129 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,283 km705 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 61 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one7.27.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland
Hull City Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Fulham (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
19K. Tzolakis(G)
18B. Norton-Cuffy 22L. Herrington 15J. Egan 6S. Ajayi 2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas 27R. Slater 25M. Crooks 10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Hull City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.50
Hull City · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentManchester CityHull City
Manchester United W 1–0 A W 2–0 H
Coventry W 1–0 H W 1–0 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Manchester CityHull CityForecast
Scored per game 2.711.14
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 3.712.14
Over 1.5 71%57%
Over 2.5 71%43%
Over 3.5 43%29%
Both teams scored 57%43%
Clean sheets 43%43%
Failed to score 0%29%
Games77
Manchester CityHull CityForecast
Scored per game 2.401.14
Conceded per game 1.301.00
Match goals 3.702.14
Over 1.5 80%57%
Over 2.5 70%43%
Over 3.5 40%29%
Both teams scored 60%43%
Clean sheets 40%43%
Failed to score 0%29%
Games107

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester CityHull CityLeague
Corners
Corners won5.573.71
Corners conceded4.146.71
Match total9.7110.429.49
Over 8.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 9.557% 4/757% 4/7
Over 10.557% 4/757% 4/7
Cards
Cards1.433.00
Opponent cards1.861.00
Match total3.294.004.17
Over 3.529% 2/757% 4/7
Over 4.514% 1/757% 4/7
Manchester CityHull CityLeague
Corners
Corners won6.403.89
Corners conceded3.706.44
Match total10.1010.339.49
Over 8.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 9.560% 6/1056% 5/9
Over 10.560% 6/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards1.502.70
Opponent cards1.501.10
Match total3.003.804.17
Over 3.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester City7 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Hull City7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
3 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
1 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

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