Premier League Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 19 · 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Aston Villa 12th · 8 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel163 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Chelsea—%
Draw—%
Aston Villa—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 4 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Chelsea and Aston Villa. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ChelseaAston Villa
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 82
77 AttackIn forecast 83
74 DefenceIn forecast 78
69 Form indexContext 84
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—
Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ChelseaAston Villa
2.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
+1.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
86% Scored inContext 57%
14% Clean sheetsContext 29%
14.29 ShotsContext 11.86
5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
39% On target shareContext 27%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
63% Box shareContext 64%
17% ConversionContext 8%
1.60 OffsidesContext 1.75
12.43 Shots allowedContext 15.86
5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
3.67 BlocksContext 3.83
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
73% Save rateContext 71%
47% PossessionIn forecast 48%
432 PassesContext 410
361 Accurate passesContext 339
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.72
9.29 FoulsContext 10.71
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
90% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.30 ShotsContext 13.60
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
40% On target shareContext 35%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
60% Box shareContext 65%
17% ConversionContext 13%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.57
12.50 Shots allowedContext 15.60
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.44 BlocksContext 4.22
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
74% Save rateContext 73%
48% PossessionIn forecast 46%
442 PassesContext 404
370 Accurate passesContext 340
84% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.91
10.50 FoulsContext 10.50
13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
Aston Villa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel163 km55 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Newcastle1–01.6 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Fenerbahce6–02.0 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Chelsea Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Dec7Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km163 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways524 km55 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one86.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Aston Villa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Newcastle (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash
35João Gomes 8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía 44J. Manzambi 47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Aston Villa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
2.00
Aston Villa · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentChelseaAston Villa
Brentford L 0–3 A D 2–2 H
Hull City D 2–2 H D 0–0 A
Arsenal L 1–2 A L 0–1 H
Brighton W 4–3 H L 0–4 A
Points4 of 12 · 1.00 per game2 of 12 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Chelsea wins1 draws4 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.10 Over 2.570% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 20%
  • 4 Mar 2026Aston Villa1–4Chelsea
  • 27 Dec 2025Chelsea1–2Aston Villa
  • 22 Feb 2025Aston Villa2–1Chelsea
  • 1 Dec 2024Chelsea3–0Aston Villa
  • 27 Apr 2024Aston Villa2–2Chelsea
  • 24 Sep 2023Chelsea0–1Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ChelseaAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 2.431.00
Conceded per game 1.861.57
Match goals 4.292.57
Over 1.5 100%57%
Over 2.5 86%57%
Over 3.5 57%43%
Both teams scored 71%43%
Clean sheets 14%29%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77
ChelseaAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 2.101.80
Conceded per game 1.701.40
Match goals 3.803.20
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 80%50%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ChelseaAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.863.14
Corners conceded5.434.29
Match total11.297.439.49
Over 8.571% 5/729% 2/7
Over 9.571% 5/714% 1/7
Over 10.557% 4/714% 1/7
Cards
Cards1.862.14
Opponent cards3.003.14
Match total4.865.284.17
Over 3.586% 6/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
ChelseaAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.00
Corners conceded5.305.00
Match total10.109.009.49
Over 8.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 9.550% 5/1030% 3/10
Over 10.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.601.80
Opponent cards3.102.80
Match total5.704.604.17
Over 3.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Chelsea7 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
7 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
7 1 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 4 16-30
5 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Bournemouth Coventry Dec 1915:00 Liverpool Tottenham Dec 1915:00 Arsenal Manchester United Dec 1915:00 Chelsea Aston Villa Dec 1915:00 Manchester City Hull City Dec 1915:00 Brighton Ipswich Dec 1915:00 Brentford Newcastle Dec 1915:00 Leeds Fulham Dec 1915:00 Nottingham Forest Everton Dec 1915:00 Sunderland Crystal Palace Dec 1915:00