Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain – 14 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Wed, Oct 14 · 20:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City 10th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–4Full time

Paris Saint Germain 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Manchester City. Manchester City had 3.1 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 4 and had to travel 606 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel606 kmRest days3.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1

Manchester City56%

Draw20%

Paris Saint Germain24%

Expected goals 2.19 – 1.38

Manchester City51%

Draw25%

Paris Saint Germain25%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Manchester City56%

Draw20%

Paris Saint Germain24%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.38

Manchester City47%

Draw22%

Paris Saint Germain31%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.55

Manchester City55%

Draw22%

Paris Saint Germain24%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.26

Over 2.5 69% Both score 66% Likeliest score 2–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

16°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 71%

Referee · GermanySven Jablonski

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 115

Team strength

Manchester City

Paris Saint Germain

92 L90 StrengthIn forecast 88

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

92 AttackIn forecast 91

82 DefenceIn forecast 83

97 Form indexContext 79

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack−11%

Defense risk+36%

Paris Saint Germain

Attack−46%

Defense risk+98%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Manchester City

Paris Saint Germain

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

100% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.80 ShotsContext 20.00

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60

36% On target shareContext 33%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.70

68% Box shareContext 58%

16% ConversionContext 11%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.88

10.50 Shots allowedContext 11.60

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.56 BlocksContext 3.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.43

77% Save rateContext 82%

63% PossessionIn forecast 68%

610 PassesContext 729

544 Accurate passesContext 657

89% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.15 Team ratingContext 7.08

10.90 FoulsContext 6.40

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City WWWWW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 97 · 15 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +5.5 vs expected

W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts
W5 SepH · Coventry1–02.5 xPts
W28 AugA · Crystal Palace4–11.7 xPts

Paris Saint Germain LWWWW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel606 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 79 · 12 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts
W9 SepH · Slovan Bratislava6–12.7 xPts
L4 SepH · Monaco1–22.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Premier League 2026-2027, 11 Oct	4Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	606 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Donnarumma(G)

24J. Gvardiol 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 45A. Khusanov

17E. Fernández 5E. Anderson

11J. Doku 10M. Cherki 42A. Semenyo

9E. Haaland

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

25Nuno Mendes 51W. Pacho 5Marquinhos 2A. Hakimi

8Fabián Ruiz 17Vitinha 33W. Zaïre-Emery

14D. Doué 10M. Dembélé 11M. Akliouche

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City No reported absences

Paris Saint Germain Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −2.0% · Defence line −1.8% of weighted minutes

MID S. Mayulu Rotation 6.73 Att −2.0% Def −1.8%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Longoni

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester City+0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Paris Saint Germain-0.2 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home No home games yet this season.

Paris Saint Germain · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Manchester City wins0 draws2 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game1.33 – 2.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

22 Jan 2025Paris Saint Germain4–2Manchester City
24 Nov 2021Manchester City2–1Paris Saint Germain
28 Sep 2021Paris Saint Germain2–0Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	6.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	7.00	3.57
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	69%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	66%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Manchester City	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	2.10
Conceded per game	0.80	1.10
Match goals	3.10	3.20	3.57
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	69%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	66%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	7.00
Corners conceded	2.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	9.00	9.36
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	0.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	1.00	3.82
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Manchester City	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	5.00
Corners conceded	4.30	3.43
Match total	10.90	8.43	9.36
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.00
Opponent cards	1.80	2.10
Match total	3.30	3.10	3.82
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 115 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.71league 3.62

Red cards0.10league 0.17

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls20.5league 22.8

Penalties0.17league 0.21

Home wins42%league 59%

Manchester City1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L20 Jan 26A · Bodo/Glimt1–33

Paris Saint Germain

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.