Manchester United vs Ipswich – 30 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 16:30 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

5–2Full time

Ipswich 10th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester United were clear favourites.

Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Ipswich. Manchester United had 8.2 days of rest, Ipswich 8.1 and had to travel 278 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel278 kmRest days8.2 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Manchester United68%

Draw18%

Ipswich14%

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.93

Manchester United67%

Draw19%

Ipswich13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.83

Manchester United67%

Draw18%

Ipswich14%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.93

Manchester United60%

Draw21%

Ipswich19%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.04

Manchester United67%

Draw19%

Ipswich14%

Expected goals 2.23 – 0.91

Over 2.5 62% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

19°CDrizzle

Precipitation 0.9 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 80%

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 147

Team strength

Manchester United

Ipswich

81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

72 AttackIn forecast 59

80 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ipswich

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Ipswich

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.50 ShotsContext 12.80

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

35% On target shareContext 36%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

63% Box shareContext 73%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.13

13.30 Shots allowedContext 12.20

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

4.50 BlocksContext 4.40

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

72% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 52%

463 PassesContext 401

387 Accurate passesContext 318

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.01

10.20 FoulsContext 10.70

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United L

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km258 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected

L22 AugA · Hull City0–22.2 xPts

Ipswich W

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel278 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 3 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W22 AugH · Sunderland2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Ipswich
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug	8.1Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	278 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	258 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 2Diogo Dalot

37K. Mainoo 18Y. Tielemans

9M. Rashford 8Bruno Fernandes 19B. Mbeumo

10Matheus Cunha

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Ipswich Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

37K. Scherpen(G)

3L. Davis 24J. Greaves 6I. Diop 26D. O'Shea

32M. Núñez 23S. Lukić

38D. Maeda 10J. Enciso 7I. Fatawu

19Emersonn

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Absences are shown before kick-off

Ipswich Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Ipswich-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home No home games yet this season.

Ipswich · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Manchester United wins1 draws0 Ipswich wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

26 Feb 2025Manchester United3–2Ipswich
24 Nov 2024Ipswich1–1Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Ipswich	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	3.00	3.20
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	62%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Manchester United	Ipswich	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.20
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	100%	62%
Over 3.5	40%	0%
Both teams scored	60%	100%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Ipswich	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.00
Corners conceded	1.00	5.00
Match total	7.00	8.00	9.53
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	3.00	3.00	3.94
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Manchester United	Ipswich	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	5.30
Corners conceded	5.11	4.60
Match total	11.33	9.90	9.53
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.00
Opponent cards	1.60	2.10
Match total	4.00	4.10	3.94
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 147 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.90league 3.72

Red cards0.10league 0.06

Cards 5+38%league 33%

Fouls22.7league 23.0

Penalties0.22league 0.17

Home wins41%league 50%

Manchester United17 with this referee

Record6-5-6 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

W25 Jan 26A · Arsenal3–20
L27 Sep 25A · Brentford1–32
L22 Dec 24H · Bournemouth0–31
L24 Aug 24A · Brighton1–22
W19 May 24A · Brighton2–03

Ipswich1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L3 Dec 24H · Crystal Palace0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.