Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester United
3rd · 61 pts · 34 played
WDLWW
3–2Full time
Liverpool
4th · 58 pts · 34 played
DLWWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Manchester United had 5.8 days of rest, Liverpool 8 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days5.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Manchester United42%
Draw24%
Liverpool35%
Manchester United39%
Draw27%
Liverpool34%
Manchester United41%
Draw24%
Liverpool35%
Manchester United34%
Draw23%
Liverpool43%
Manchester United41%
Draw25%
Liverpool34%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 120
Team strength
Manchester UnitedLiverpool
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
85
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
72
AttackIn forecast
85
80
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedLiverpool
1.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.68
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
91%
Scored inContext
88%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
15.50
ShotsContext
15.50
5.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
37%
On target shareContext
29%
10.27
Shots in the boxContext
10.12
64%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.96
OffsidesContext
2.39
11.44
Shots allowedContext
11.35
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.16
3.84
BlocksContext
3.38
2.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.87
66%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
469
PassesContext
534
389
Accurate passesContext
457
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.97
FoulsContext
9.76
11.03
Fouls sufferedContext
10.35
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.47
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.20
ShotsContext
15.80
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.22
42%
On target shareContext
35%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
59%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.50
BlocksContext
3.11
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
75%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
508
PassesContext
467
428
Accurate passesContext
385
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.20
FoulsContext
11.70
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Liverpool
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel50 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Apr | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
26A. Heaven
5J. Maguire
2Diogo Dalot
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
19B. Mbeumo
30B. Šeško
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
28F. Woodman(G)
26A. Robertson
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
17C. Jones
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
30J. Frimpong
7F. Wirtz
8D. Szoboszlai
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Liverpool-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
2.12points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-3-3
- Scored
- 1.94
- Conceded
- 1.18
Liverpool · Away
1.41points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-7
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | L 2–3 A |
| Chelsea | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Leeds | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 AD 4–4 H | L 2–3 AW 4–2 H |
| Aston Villa | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 4–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Everton | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| West Ham | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 5–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Fulham | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Arsenal | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Manchester City | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Brighton | W 4–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 58 of 99 · 1.76 per game | 58 of 99 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
3 Manchester United wins3 draws4 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.80
Over 2.590%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets10% · 50%
- 19 Oct 2025Liverpool1–2Manchester United
- 5 Jan 2025Liverpool2–2Manchester United
- 1 Sep 2024Manchester United0–3Liverpool
- 7 Apr 2024Manchester United2–2Liverpool
- 17 Mar 2024Manchester United4–3Liverpool
- 17 Dec 2023Liverpool0–0Manchester United
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.76 | 1.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.12 | 2.97 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 62% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 65% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 12% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Manchester United | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 6.12 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.18 | 4.64 | |
| Match total | 9.85 | 10.76 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 19/33 | 79% 26/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 18/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 12/33 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.59 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 21/34 | 47% 16/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 16/34 | 26% 9/34 | |
| Manchester United | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.77 | 9.90 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 120 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 3.78
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+43%league 39%
Fouls22.3league 21.5
Penalties0.27league 0.21
Home wins43%league 43%
Manchester United5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W23 Feb 26A · Everton1–03
- D1 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest2–21
- W26 Feb 25H · Ipswich3–25
- L7 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest2–30
- W11 Dec 21A · Norwich1–01
Liverpool8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L21 Mar 26A · Brighton1–25
- W30 Nov 25A · West Ham2–00
- W20 Sep 25H · Everton2–12
- D25 May 25H · Crystal Palace1–13
- W1 Feb 25A · Bournemouth2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United34 games · scored 60 · conceded 46
5
5
0-15
7
5
16-30
12
6
31-45
11
8
46-60
11
8
61-75
14
14
76-90
Liverpool34 games · scored 57 · conceded 44
3
5
0-15
5
3
16-30
15
5
31-45
9
8
46-60
6
8
61-75
19
15
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
