Manchester United vs Manchester City – 13 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 13 · 16:30 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United 13th · 4 pts · 3 played LWD

0–1Full time

Manchester City 2nd · 9 pts · 3 played WWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 82). Manchester United had 2.9 days of rest, Manchester City 4.9 and had to travel 0 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel0 kmRest days2.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

Manchester United35%

Draw23%

Manchester City42%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.73

Manchester United34%

Draw26%

Manchester City40%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.39

Manchester United35%

Draw23%

Manchester City42%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.73

Manchester United28%

Draw22%

Manchester City50%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.94

Manchester United36%

Draw24%

Manchester City41%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.61

Over 2.5 64% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

21°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 60%

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 200

Team strength

Manchester United

Manchester City

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 91

72 AttackIn forecast 92

80 DefenceIn forecast 82

59 Form indexContext 88

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Manchester City

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.33

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67

2.36 xGVia Att/Def 2.19

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

67% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 33%

22.67 ShotsContext 15.33

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33

28% On target shareContext 41%

13.33 Shots in the boxContext 12.67

57% Box shareContext 83%

10% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.50

11.67 Shots allowedContext 8.67

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

3.00 BlocksContext 2.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

60% Save rateContext 88%

62% PossessionIn forecast 72%

581 PassesContext 755

511 Accurate passesContext 689

88% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.88 Team ratingContext 7.29

9.00 FoulsContext 9.67

9.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.99 xGVia Att/Def 2.13

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

80% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

17.30 ShotsContext 18.50

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.40

34% On target shareContext 35%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 12.80

60% Box shareContext 71%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.10 Shots allowedContext 8.60

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.89

4.80 BlocksContext 2.56

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

76% Save rateContext 77%

51% PossessionIn forecast 66%

494 PassesContext 644

424 Accurate passesContext 579

86% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.13 Team ratingContext 7.12

10.10 FoulsContext 9.60

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United LWDW

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 59 · 7 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected

W10 SepH · Sabah FA4–02.6 xPts
D6 SepA · Everton2–21.5 xPts
W30 AugH · Ipswich5–22.2 xPts
L22 AugA · Hull City0–22.2 xPts

Manchester City WWW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,903 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 88 · 9 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · +2.8 vs expected

W5 SepH · Coventry1–02.5 xPts
W28 AugA · Crystal Palace4–11.7 xPts
W23 AugH · Bournemouth2–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 5
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep	4.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	2,903 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. Lammens(G)

13P. Dorgu 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 2Diogo Dalot

37K. Mainoo 18Y. Tielemans

9M. Rashford 8Bruno Fernandes 19B. Mbeumo

10Matheus Cunha

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Donnarumma(G)

24J. Gvardiol 3Rúben Dias 6A. Guéhi 27M. Nunes

17E. Fernández 5E. Anderson

42A. Semenyo 10M. Cherki 47P. Foden

9E. Haaland

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester City Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Manchester City+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 5.00
Conceded: 2.00

Manchester City · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

4 Manchester United wins1 draws5 Manchester City wins

Goals per game1.30 – 2.20 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 30%

17 Jan 2026Manchester United2–0Manchester City
14 Sep 2025Manchester City3–0Manchester United
6 Apr 2025Manchester United0–0Manchester City
15 Dec 2024Manchester City1–2Manchester United
25 May 2024Manchester City1–2Manchester United
3 Mar 2024Manchester City3–1Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	2.33
Conceded per game	2.00	0.67
Match goals	4.33	3.00	3.31
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	67%	64%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	65%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	3	3

	Manchester United	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	2.10
Conceded per game	1.10	0.80
Match goals	3.40	2.90	3.31
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	64%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	65%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	6.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.33
Match total	8.67	9.33	9.08
Over 8.5	33% 1/3	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	1.67	1.33
Opponent cards	2.67	1.67
Match total	4.34	3.00	4.11
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	0% 0/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/3

	Manchester United	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	7.70
Corners conceded	4.44	3.70
Match total	9.88	11.40	9.08
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	1.70	1.80
Match total	3.60	3.30	4.11
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 3.92

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+35%league 42%

Fouls22.5league 23.4

Penalties0.20league 0.21

Home wins45%league 32%

Manchester United16 with this referee

Record6-3-7 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

W18 Apr 26A · Chelsea1–03
W7 Feb 26H · Tottenham2–01
L21 Dec 25A · Aston Villa1–22
W19 Oct 25A · Liverpool2–12
L13 Apr 25A · Newcastle1–42

Manchester City22 with this referee

Record14-5-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 2

D4 May 26A · Everton3–31
D14 Mar 26A · West Ham1–12
D4 Jan 26H · Chelsea1–13
L26 Oct 25A · Aston Villa0–14
W29 Dec 24A · Leicester2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.