Manchester United vs Sabah FA – 10 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 10 · 20:00 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United

4–0Full time

Sabah FA

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester United were clear favourites.

Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sabah FA. Manchester United had 4.3 days of rest, Sabah FA 16.1 and had to travel 4,111 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel4,111 kmRest days4.3 · 16.1Matches / 14d2 · 0

Manchester United82%

Draw11%

Sabah FA7%

Expected goals 3.05 – 0.80

Manchester United81%

Draw13%

Sabah FA6%

Expected goals 2.72 – 0.66

Manchester United83%

Draw11%

Sabah FA6%

Expected goals 3.14 – 0.80

Manchester United76%

Draw15%

Sabah FA10%

Expected goals 2.72 – 0.90

Manchester United81%

Draw12%

Sabah FA7%

Expected goals 3.00 – 0.80

Over 2.5 74% Both score 53% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

16°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 15 km/h
Humidity 90%

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 113

Team strength

Manchester United

Sabah FA

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 26

72 AttackIn forecast 30

80 DefenceIn forecast 27

50 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sabah FA

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Sabah FA

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.92 xGVia Att/Def —

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

17.20 ShotsContext 19.40

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.40

33% On target shareContext 38%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 15.50

60% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.50 Shots allowedContext 13.20

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

4.70 BlocksContext 4.25

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

72% Save rateContext 65%

51% PossessionIn forecast 49%

481 PassesContext 424

409 Accurate passesContext 353

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.09 Team ratingContext 7.11

10.10 FoulsContext 12.50

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United LWD

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 50 · 4 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

D6 SepA · Everton2–21.5 xPts
W30 AugH · Ipswich5–22.2 xPts
L22 AugA · Hull City0–22.2 xPts

Sabah FA

Rest16.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel4,111 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Sabah FA
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Sep	16.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 25 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	4,111 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	32.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. Lammens(G)

13P. Dorgu 6L. Martínez 15L. Yoro 3N. Mazraoui

37K. Mainoo 18Y. Tielemans

10Matheus Cunha 8Bruno Fernandes 19B. Mbeumo

30B. Šeško

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Sabah FA Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

92S. Pokatilov(G)

27T. Puchacz 4A. McCarthy 5R. Daşdəmirov 80A. Zedadka

13I. Lepinjica 7U. Rahmonaliyev

8C. Nwachukwu 21V. Simić 11K. Parris

20J. Mickels

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sabah FA Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United-1.1 pp
Draw+0.6 pp
Sabah FA+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home No home games yet this season.

Sabah FA · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Sabah FA	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.86
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	74%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Manchester United	Sabah FA	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.25
Conceded per game	1.30	0.88
Match goals	3.30	3.13	3.86
Over 1.5	80%	88%
Over 2.5	70%	63%	74%
Over 3.5	40%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Sabah FA	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.86
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.07
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Manchester United	Sabah FA	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	5.60
Corners conceded	4.67	3.80
Match total	10.56	9.40	8.86
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.80
Opponent cards	1.80	2.20
Match total	4.00	4.00	4.07
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 113 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.50league 4.00

Red cards0.25league 0.07

Cards 5+36%league 36%

Fouls24.6league 24.4

Penalties0.39league 0.21

Home wins42%league 57%

Manchester United

No previous matches with this referee.

Sabah FA1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W11 Aug 26H · Aarhus4–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.