Maritimo vs Academico Viseu – 22 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 3 Sat, Aug 22 · 15:30 Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira

Maritimo 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played WW

2–2Full time

Academico Viseu 12th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Academico Viseu were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Maritimo. Maritimo had 5.8 days of rest, Academico Viseu 6.9 and had to travel 1,196 km.

Away travel1,196 kmRest days5.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Maritimo40%

Draw27%

Academico Viseu33%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.20

Maritimo35%

Draw26%

Academico Viseu39%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.37

Maritimo40%

Draw27%

Academico Viseu33%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.20

Maritimo33%

Draw27%

Academico Viseu40%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.34

Maritimo42%

Draw26%

Academico Viseu33%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.24

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ilha da Madeira)

No weather data yet

RefereeL. Filipe

Team strength

Maritimo

Academico Viseu

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

15 AttackIn forecast 28

20 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Maritimo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Academico Viseu

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Maritimo

Academico Viseu

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 0.83

0.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.36

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.50 ShotsContext 9.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

32% On target shareContext 28%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext —

82% Box shareContext —

12% ConversionContext 11%

— OffsidesContext 1.50

11.50 Shots allowedContext 18.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

4.50 BlocksContext 5.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

88% Save rateContext 69%

36% PossessionIn forecast 49%

306 PassesContext 396

234 Accurate passesContext 335

76% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.88

16.50 FoulsContext 12.00

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext —

20% Clean sheetsContext —

15.10 ShotsContext —

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

33% On target shareContext —

10.78 Shots in the boxContext —

67% Box shareContext —

9% ConversionContext —

1.50 OffsidesContext —

12.70 Shots allowedContext —

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.67 BlocksContext —

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext —

66% Save rateContext —

45% PossessionIn forecast —

356 PassesContext —

287 Accurate passesContext —

81% Pass accuracyContext —

6.87 Team ratingContext —

16.10 FoulsContext —

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext —

3.30 Yellow cardsContext —

0.20 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Maritimo WW

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,444 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 72 · 6 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected

W16 AugA · Famalicao2–10.6 xPts
W8 AugH · Casa Pia1–01.3 xPts

Academico Viseu DL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,196 km480 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 35 · 1 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

L15 AugH · Santa Clara0–11.6 xPts
D9 AugA · Benfica2–20.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Maritimo	Academico Viseu
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 16 Aug	6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 15 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,196 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,444 km	480 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Maritimo Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Alfonso Pastor(G)

23Paulo Henrique 44Romain Correia 4Rafael Fernandes 2Igor Julião

18V. Danilović 6Rodrigo Andrade

10Martín Tejón 14R. Guzzo 11M. Diouri

17Adrián Butzke

Academico Viseu Confirmed XI

4-3-3

98Ewerton(G)

5Pedro Barcelos 2N. Michelis 41A. Correia 75Robinho

14S. Messeguem 6André Ceitil 8C. Kahraman

47L. Gohi 33André Clóvis 31João Guilherme

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Maritimo Absences are shown before kick-off

Academico Viseu Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Maritimo+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Academico Viseu+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Maritimo · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Academico Viseu · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Maritimo	Academico Viseu	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.50
Match goals	2.00	2.50	2.55
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Maritimo	Academico Viseu	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.50
Match goals	2.00	2.50	2.55
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Maritimo	Academico Viseu	League
Corners
Corners won	1.50	3.00
Corners conceded	5.50	6.00
Match total	7.00	9.00	8.69
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.50
Match total	3.50	5.00	4.69
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Maritimo	Academico Viseu	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	3.00
Corners conceded	5.50	6.00
Match total	10.40	9.00	8.69
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	3.60	2.50
Opponent cards	2.60	2.50
Match total	6.20	5.00	4.69
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 1/2

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.