Maritimo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Maritimo9.2%fair odds 10.85
Draw16.1%fair odds 6.23
FC Porto74.7%fair odds 1.34
Expected goals0.80 – 2.55total 3.35
Likeliest score0–211.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Maritimo ↓ · FC Porto → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Maritimo goals, columns FC Porto goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.4%8.79
- 0–39.7%10.35
- 1–29.1%10.94
- 0–18.6%11.70
- 1–37.8%12.89
- 1–17.6%13.24
- 0–46.2%16.26
- 1–44.9%20.23
- 0–03.9%25.73
- 2–23.7%27.24
Winning margin
0.6%
Maritimo by 3+
fair 166.76
2.1%
Maritimo by 2
fair 46.95
6.5%
Maritimo by 1
fair 15.41
16.1%
Draw
fair 6.23
21.4%
FC Porto by 1
fair 4.67
21.4%
FC Porto by 2
fair 4.67
31.9%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 3.13
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Maritimo goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
FC Porto goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
25%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 9.2% | 9.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 16.1% | 16.3% | -0.2 pp |
| FC Porto win | 74.7% | 74.3% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.1% | 64.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 51.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Maritimo | 0.80 | 0.81 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 2.55 | 2.53 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Maritimo win9.2%10.85
- Draw16.1%6.23
- FC Porto win74.7%1.34
- Double chance Maritimo or draw25.3%3.96
- Double chance Maritimo or FC Porto83.9%1.19
- Double chance FC Porto or draw90.8%1.10
- Draw no bet Maritimo11.0%9.11
- Draw no bet FC Porto89.0%1.12
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.1%1.17
- Over 2.565.1%1.54
- Over 3.543.1%2.32
- Over 4.524.7%4.05
- Under 1.514.9%6.72
- Under 2.534.9%2.86
- Under 3.556.9%1.76
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.543.7%2.29
- Maritimo win and yes5.3%18.96
- Draw and yes12.2%8.21
- FC Porto win and yes33.8%2.96
Team goals
- Maritimo over 0.555.2%1.81
- Maritimo over 1.519.2%5.20
- Maritimo over 2.54.8%20.87
- FC Porto over 0.592.2%1.08
- FC Porto over 1.572.2%1.38
- FC Porto over 2.546.8%2.14
- Maritimo clean sheet7.8%12.77
- FC Porto clean sheet44.8%2.23
- Maritimo win to nil3.9%25.36
- FC Porto win to nil40.9%2.45
Handicap
- Maritimo −1.52.7%36.64
- Maritimo −2.50.6%166.76
- FC Porto +1.597.3%1.03
- FC Porto +2.599.4%1.01
- FC Porto −1.553.3%1.88
- Maritimo +1.546.7%2.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored64
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.570
Over 2.5 called right56.3%
BTTS called right48.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 12 | 38.3% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 44.4% | 21.4% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 53.4% | 52.9% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.0% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 75.0% | 81.8% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 84.5% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 30 of 64 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6017 | 0.6123 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.0% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 46.7% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 30 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 64 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.