Maritimo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Maritimo. Maritimo had 21.1 days of rest, FC Porto 19.9 and had to travel 1,195 km.
Away travel1,195 kmRest days21.1 · 19.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Maritimo10%
Draw15%
FC Porto75%
Maritimo9%
Draw16%
FC Porto74%
Maritimo10%
Draw15%
FC Porto75%
Maritimo7%
Draw12%
FC Porto81%
Maritimo10%
Draw15%
FC Porto75%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Goncalves
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 4
Team strength
Maritimo
FC Porto
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
15
AttackIn forecast
74
20
DefenceIn forecast
80
12
Form indexContext
92
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MaritimoFC Porto
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.57
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.43
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
2.25
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
86%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
10.43
ShotsContext
15.86
3.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.14
30%
On target shareContext
39%
7.43
Shots in the boxContext
10.71
70%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.83
13.43
Shots allowedContext
10.71
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.57
3.67
BlocksContext
2.86
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
65%
Save rateContext
78%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
374
PassesContext
427
301
Accurate passesContext
365
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.59
Team ratingContext
7.08
15.29
FoulsContext
13.71
12.14
Fouls sufferedContext
9.86
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.40
ShotsContext
15.00
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.89
29%
On target shareContext
35%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
68%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.67
BlocksContext
2.80
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
66%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
363
PassesContext
428
291
Accurate passesContext
362
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.98
15.50
FoulsContext
12.50
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Maritimo
DLLLD
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 12 · 2 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
FC Porto
WWWWW
Rest19.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,195 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 92 · 15 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +4.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Maritimo |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 19.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,195 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Maritimo
Confirmed XI
30Fran Vieites(G)
23Paulo Henrique
22G. Szalai
44Romain Correia
2Igor Julião
14R. Guzzo
21Ibrahim Alani
10Martín Tejón
8M. Dominguez
15Tomás Tavares
17Adrián Butzke
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
16I. Hwang
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
11Pepê
19André Silva
7William Gomes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Maritimo
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Maritimo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Maritimo · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Arouca | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Academico Viseu | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Casa Pia | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 15 of 15 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Maritimo wins0 draws2 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 1 Feb 2023Maritimo0–2FC Porto
- 6 Aug 2022FC Porto5–1Maritimo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Maritimo | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 2.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 3.00 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Maritimo | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.80 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 10% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Maritimo | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 6.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 7.29 | 10.72 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 14% 1/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 0.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.15 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Maritimo | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 10.50 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.00 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Goncalves Portugal · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.25league 4.16
Red cards0.00league 0.20
Cards 5+50%league 45%
Fouls24.3league 24.8
Penalties0.50league 0.34
Home wins0%league 38%
MaritimoNo previous matches with this referee.
FC Porto1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25A · Sporting CP2–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Maritimo7 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
FC Porto7 games · scored 18 · conceded 3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Maritimo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
