Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 53). Lille come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Marseille had 8.9 days of rest, Lille 2.8 and had to travel 831 km.
Away travel831 kmRest days8.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 4
Marseille47%
Draw28%
Lille24%
Marseille47%
Draw26%
Lille26%
Marseille47%
Draw28%
Lille25%
Marseille40%
Draw29%
Lille30%
Marseille43%
Draw29%
Lille27%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 121
Team strength
Marseille
Lille
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
48
AttackIn forecast
42
46
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleLille
2.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.54
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
77%
Scored inContext
69%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
13.85
ShotsContext
13.50
5.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
38%
On target shareContext
32%
8.65
Shots in the boxContext
9.62
63%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.37
OffsidesContext
1.62
10.15
Shots allowedContext
9.42
4.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.54
2.74
BlocksContext
2.44
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.42
71%
Save rateContext
66%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
550
PassesContext
481
488
Accurate passesContext
410
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.50
FoulsContext
11.04
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.12
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.19
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.60
ShotsContext
11.40
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
35%
On target shareContext
29%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
56%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.50
Shots allowedContext
8.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
2.30
BlocksContext
2.50
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
58%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
497
PassesContext
485
431
Accurate passesContext
408
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.20
FoulsContext
10.40
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel831 km1,709 km in 14d
Schedule load60%Critical
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Critical · 60 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Mar | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 831 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,709 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 4 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 13.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
32F. Medina
5L. Balerdi
22T. Weah
19G. Kondogbia
23P. Højbjerg
14Igor Paixão
27Q. Timber
10M. Greenwood
17P. Aubameyang
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
24C. Verdonk
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
32A. Bouaddi
6N. Bentaleb
27Félix Correia
10H. Haraldsson
17N. Mukau
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lille-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
2.31points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-1
- Scored
- 2.54
- Conceded
- 1.15
Lille · Away
1.54points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-5
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lyon | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| Strasbourg | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Paris FC | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H | W 4–2 H |
| Lens | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Angers | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Nantes | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | W 5–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| LE Havre | W 6–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Metz | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 AW 6–1 H |
| Lorient | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 HW 7–1 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 49 of 75 · 1.96 per game | 41 of 75 · 1.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Marseille wins4 draws4 Lille wins
Goals per game0.78 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 33%
- 5 Dec 2025Lille1–0Marseille
- 4 May 2025Lille1–1Marseille
- 14 Dec 2024Marseille1–1Lille
- 5 Apr 2024Lille3–1Marseille
- 4 Nov 2023Marseille0–0Lille
- 20 May 2023Lille2–1Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.04 | 1.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 3.31 | 2.81 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 38% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 42% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 31% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Marseille | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 10% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.72 | 5.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.64 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.36 | 9.38 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 10/25 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 28% 7/25 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 5/25 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.46 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.85 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.16 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 17/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 13/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Marseille | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.90 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 121 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.12league 3.71
Red cards0.21league 0.28
Cards 5+46%league 37%
Fouls24.4league 23.8
Penalties0.41league 0.37
Home wins54%league 48%
Marseille15 with this referee
Record5-2-8
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds2
- W24 Jan 26H · Lens3–10
- W1 Nov 25A · Auxerre1–05
- L12 Apr 25A · Monaco0–31
- W22 Sep 24A · Lyon3–23
- W17 Aug 24A · Stade Brestois 295–11
Lille10 with this referee
Record4-4-2
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.2
Pens for · against4 · 1
- D5 Oct 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–11
- W22 Feb 25H · Monaco2–14
- W6 Dec 24H · Stade Brestois 293–11
- W26 Oct 24A · Lens2–05
- L1 Sep 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille26 games · scored 53 · conceded 33
6
5
0-15
10
5
16-30
6
3
31-45
7
3
46-60
9
5
61-75
15
12
76-90
Lille26 games · scored 40 · conceded 33
5
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
9
46-60
4
7
61-75
21
6
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
3
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
