Marseille vs Lorient – 29 May 2027

Ligue 1 Gameweek 34 Sat, May 29 · 20:00 Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 9th · 9 pts · 7 played LLLWW

VS— Compare

Lorient 7th · 11 pts · 7 played WDLWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel842 kmRest days7.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Marseille—%

Draw—%

Lorient—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Marseille)

Forecast from 14 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Lorient 6 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Marseille

Lorient

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

48 AttackIn forecast 28

46 DefenceIn forecast 45

41 Form indexContext 69

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Marseille

Lorient

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

71% Scored inContext 86%

29% Clean sheetsContext 57%

13.14 ShotsContext 9.86

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

38% On target shareContext 35%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.71

62% Box shareContext 70%

15% ConversionContext 10%

1.40 OffsidesContext 1.25

15.86 Shots allowedContext 13.86

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71

4.83 BlocksContext 4.71

3.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

73% Save rateContext 83%

58% PossessionIn forecast 46%

587 PassesContext 482

521 Accurate passesContext 408

89% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.71 FoulsContext 9.29

10.86 Fouls sufferedContext 15.14

1.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.14

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.40 ShotsContext 9.80

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

38% On target shareContext 35%

9.78 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

63% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.43

16.20 Shots allowedContext 13.60

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

4.78 BlocksContext 4.78

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

70% Save rateContext 81%

55% PossessionIn forecast 46%

547 PassesContext 458

481 Accurate passesContext 390

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.20 FoulsContext 9.10

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille LLWLW

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,321 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W18 OctA · Angers5–21.7 xPts
L15 OctH · Olympiakos Piraeus0–11.3 xPts
W11 OctA · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
L20 SepH · Paris Saint Germain1–20.8 xPts
L17 SepA · Besiktas1–41.1 xPts

Lorient WDLWW

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel842 km1,187 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctH · Monaco1–01.2 xPts
W10 OctH · Paris FC1–01.4 xPts
L19 SepA · Le Mans1–21.3 xPts
D12 SepH · Toulouse2–21.6 xPts
W5 SepA · Lens1–00.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 May	7.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	842 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,321 km	1,187 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	—	—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Angers (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 19G. Kondogbia 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

6Tochukwu Nnadi

14Igor Paixão 8H. Abdelli 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

Lorient Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Monaco (H) 1–0, 18 Oct

38Y. Mvogo(G)

95S. Touré 3M. Talbi 32N. Adjei

43Arsène Kouassi 62A. Avom 8Noah Cadiou 20D. Sylla

33Gabin Bernardeau 17J. Makengo

18I. Baldé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Lorient Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.67

Lorient · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Marseille	Lorient
Estac Troyes	W 2–0 A	L 1–2 H
Paris FC	L 2–3 H	W 1–0 H
Monaco	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 Marseille wins1 draws1 Lorient wins

Goals per game2.63 – 0.88 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 25%

18 Apr 2026Lorient2–0Marseille
12 Sep 2025Marseille4–0Lorient
12 May 2024Marseille3–1Lorient
10 Dec 2023Lorient2–4Marseille
9 Apr 2023Lorient0–0Marseille
14 Jan 2023Marseille3–1Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	Lorient
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.43	0.86
Match goals	3.43	1.86
Over 1.5	86%	43%
Over 2.5	57%	43%
Over 3.5	43%	14%
Both teams scored	43%	43%
Clean sheets	29%	57%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Marseille	Lorient
Scored per game	1.80	1.30
Conceded per game	1.60	1.00
Match goals	3.40	2.30
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	3.00
Corners conceded	4.43	5.17
Match total	8.72	8.17	9.63
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.57	1.14
Opponent cards	2.29	2.29
Match total	3.86	3.43	3.47
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7

	Marseille	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	3.11
Corners conceded	4.50	5.67
Match total	9.20	8.78	9.63
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.30
Opponent cards	2.10	2.00
Match total	3.80	3.30	3.47
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.