Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 55). Absences weigh more on Lyon. Marseille had 9 days of rest, Lyon 7 and had to travel 277 km.
Away travel277 kmRest days9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Marseille40%
Draw26%
Lyon34%
Marseille37%
Draw27%
Lyon36%
Marseille39%
Draw26%
Lyon35%
Marseille33%
Draw26%
Lyon41%
Marseille40%
Draw27%
Lyon33%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 102
Team strength
Marseille
Lyon
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
48
AttackIn forecast
55
46
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleLyon
2.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.61
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
74%
Scored inContext
87%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
52%
13.78
ShotsContext
11.43
5.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.39
39%
On target shareContext
38%
8.74
Shots in the boxContext
8.05
64%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.41
OffsidesContext
1.82
10.09
Shots allowedContext
10.57
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.55
2.80
BlocksContext
3.84
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
75%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
560
PassesContext
463
500
Accurate passesContext
398
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.35
FoulsContext
13.70
10.13
Fouls sufferedContext
13.09
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
50%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.40
ShotsContext
12.10
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
39%
On target shareContext
41%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
58%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.20
Shots allowedContext
9.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.80
BlocksContext
2.88
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
56%
Save rateContext
74%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
518
PassesContext
485
454
Accurate passesContext
419
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.60
FoulsContext
12.40
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,900 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Lyon
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel277 km754 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 277 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,900 km | 754 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
5L. Balerdi
22T. Weah
23P. Højbjerg
19G. Kondogbia
20H. Traorè
27Q. Timber
10M. Greenwood
17P. Aubameyang
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
99N. Nartey
9Endrick
77R. Yaremchuk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+1.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lyon-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
2.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-1
- Scored
- 2.64
- Conceded
- 1.18
Lyon · Away
1.50points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Strasbourg | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Paris FC | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| Lens | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Angers | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nantes | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nice | W 5–1 A | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| LE Havre | W 6–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 A | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Lorient | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 40 of 66 · 1.82 per game | 42 of 66 · 1.91 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Marseille wins0 draws4 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 31 Aug 2025Lyon1–0Marseille
- 2 Feb 2025Marseille3–2Lyon
- 22 Sep 2024Lyon2–3Marseille
- 4 Feb 2024Lyon1–0Marseille
- 6 Dec 2023Marseille3–0Lyon
- 23 Apr 2023Lyon1–2Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.09 | 1.61 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.61 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 52% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 43% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 52% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 13% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Marseille | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.82 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 8.32 | 10.19 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 8/22 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 6/22 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 4/22 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.61 | 2.52 | |
| Match total | 3.96 | 4.65 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 14/23 | 78% 18/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 10/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Marseille | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.34 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.60 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.70
Red cards0.27league 0.29
Cards 5+33%league 36%
Fouls24.0league 23.9
Penalties0.33league 0.40
Home wins41%league 49%
Marseille13 with this referee
Record8-3-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds1
- L5 Dec 25A · Lille0–11
- W22 Sep 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–04
- W19 Apr 25H · Montpellier5–11
- W2 Feb 25H · Lyon3–24
- W8 Dec 24A · Saint Etienne2–01
Lyon15 with this referee
Record5-3-7
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 3
Reds2
- W3 Jan 26A · Monaco3–13
- L18 Oct 25A · Nice2–32
- L2 Feb 25A · Marseille2–31
- D1 Nov 24A · Lille1–11
- W7 Apr 24A · Nantes3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille23 games · scored 48 · conceded 31
6
4
0-15
9
5
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
9
5
61-75
12
11
76-90
Lyon23 games · scored 37 · conceded 23
4
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
9
6
31-45
7
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
10
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
3
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
8
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
9
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
