Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 52). Absences weigh more on Marseille. Marseille had 9 days of rest, Monaco 9.1 and had to travel 172 km.
Away travel172 kmRest days9 · 9.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Marseille51%
Draw25%
Monaco24%
Marseille51%
Draw26%
Monaco24%
Marseille52%
Draw25%
Monaco23%
Marseille43%
Draw26%
Monaco30%
Marseille50%
Draw26%
Monaco25%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 113
Team strength
Marseille
Monaco
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
48
AttackIn forecast
45
46
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleMonaco
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
80%
Scored inContext
80%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
13.53
ShotsContext
12.00
5.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
40%
On target shareContext
31%
8.47
Shots in the boxContext
8.36
64%
Box shareContext
70%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
1.45
OffsidesContext
2.92
8.80
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.75
BlocksContext
3.93
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
61%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
586
PassesContext
484
528
Accurate passesContext
408
90%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.67
FoulsContext
12.53
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.93
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.20
ShotsContext
12.60
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
39%
On target shareContext
32%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
64%
Box shareContext
75%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.43
OffsidesContext
3.14
9.30
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.29
BlocksContext
4.40
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
74%
Save rateContext
67%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
581
PassesContext
425
517
Accurate passesContext
347
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.40
FoulsContext
12.50
10.11
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,662 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Monaco
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel172 km2,105 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Dec | 9.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 172 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,662 km | 2,105 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.8 | 19.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
28B. Pavard
62A. Murillo
23P. Højbjerg
19G. Kondogbia
22T. Weah
18A. Vermeeren
10M. Greenwood
97P. Aubameyang
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
12Caio Henrique
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
2Vanderson
6D. Zakaria
15M. Camara
10A. Golovin
18T. Minamino
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Monaco+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
2.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-0
- Scored
- 3.29
- Conceded
- 1.14
Monaco · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | W 5–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Angers | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 A | L 1–4 H |
| LE Havre | W 6–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 A | W 5–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lorient | W 4–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Paris FC | W 5–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Points | 29 of 42 · 2.07 per game | 20 of 42 · 1.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Marseille wins2 draws3 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.63
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 12 Apr 2025Monaco3–0Marseille
- 1 Dec 2024Marseille2–1Monaco
- 27 Jan 2024Marseille2–2Monaco
- 30 Sep 2023Monaco3–2Marseille
- 28 Jan 2023Marseille1–1Monaco
- 13 Nov 2022Monaco2–3Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.47 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Marseille | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.20 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 8.79 | 8.46 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 5/14 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 5/14 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 4/14 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.53 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.60 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 9/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 6/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Marseille | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 7.30 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.20 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 113 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 3.69
Red cards0.27league 0.34
Cards 5+46%league 36%
Fouls22.3league 24.1
Penalties0.31league 0.48
Home wins52%league 51%
Marseille11 with this referee
Record5-3-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds3
- L31 Aug 25A · Lyon0–13
- L27 Oct 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–32
- W10 Mar 24H · Nantes2–02
- W6 Dec 23H · Lyon3–01
- D17 Sep 23H · Toulouse0–02
Monaco10 with this referee
Record5-1-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L17 May 25A · Lens0–42
- L18 Dec 24H · Paris Saint Germain2–42
- W25 Feb 24A · Lens3–23
- L13 Jan 24H · Reims1–33
- W13 Aug 23A · Clermont Foot4–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille15 games · scored 35 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
6
4
16-30
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
8
1
61-75
10
5
76-90
Monaco15 games · scored 26 · conceded 26
3
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
5
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
