Marseille vs Nantes – 4 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 17 Sun, Jan 4 · 14:00 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 3rd · 32 pts · 16 played WWDLW

0–2Full time

Nantes 17th · 11 pts · 16 played DDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Marseille were clear favourites.

Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 19). Marseille usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Marseille had 20.8 days of rest, Nantes 22.8 and had to travel 696 km.

Away travel696 kmRest days20.8 · 22.8Matches / 14d0 · 0

Marseille75%

Draw17%

Nantes9%

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.74

Marseille73%

Draw17%

Nantes10%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.75

Marseille74%

Draw17%

Nantes9%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.74

Marseille68%

Draw20%

Nantes12%

Expected goals 2.18 – 0.83

Marseille74%

Draw17%

Nantes9%

Expected goals 2.40 – 0.75

Over 2.5 62% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Marseille)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 59

Team strength

Marseille

Nantes

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

48 AttackIn forecast 24

46 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Marseille

Nantes

2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88

0.94 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 0.74

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

81% Scored inContext 56%

38% Clean sheetsContext 13%

13.81 ShotsContext 9.19

5.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.93

41% On target shareContext 28%

8.69 Shots in the boxContext 5.25

64% Box shareContext 56%

16% ConversionContext 10%

1.45 OffsidesContext 1.50

9.38 Shots allowedContext 16.00

3.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.13

3.08 BlocksContext 4.79

3.07 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

75% Save rateContext 68%

60% PossessionIn forecast 42%

580 PassesContext 350

520 Accurate passesContext 279

90% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.63 FoulsContext 11.06

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.13

2.06 Yellow cardsContext 1.69

0.19 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 0.67

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.40 ShotsContext 8.80

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

42% On target shareContext 32%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 5.10

65% Box shareContext 58%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.30 Shots allowedContext 16.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.75 BlocksContext 4.56

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

73% Save rateContext 64%

59% PossessionIn forecast 42%

556 PassesContext 330

490 Accurate passesContext 261

88% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.69

11.60 FoulsContext 11.30

10.11 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille

Rest20.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest22.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel696 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec	22.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	696 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	13.3	14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Rulli(G)

32F. Medina 4C. Egan-Riley 28B. Pavard

33Emerson 23P. Højbjerg 18A. Vermeeren 22T. Weah

14Igor Paixão 10M. Greenwood

97P. Aubameyang

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1A. Lopes(G)

27D. Machado 3N. Cozza 78Tylel Tati 98K. Amian 18F. Centonze

10M. Abline 80J. Mwanga 13F. Coquelin 17D. Assoumani

19Y. El-Arabi

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Marseille+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Nantes-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home 2.50points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 1.00

Nantes · Away 0.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-4
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.63

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Marseille	Nantes
Monaco	W 1–0 H	L 3–5 H
Lille	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 H
Toulouse	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 A
Nice	W 5–1 A	L 0–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–0 H	D 0–0 A
Auxerre	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Angers	D 2–2 H	L 1–4 A
Lens	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 H
LE Havre	W 6–2 H	D 1–1 A
Metz	W 3–0 A	L 0–2 H
Strasbourg	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 H
Lorient	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 H
Lyon	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 A
Paris FC	W 5–2 H	W 2–1 A
Rennes	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Points	32 of 48 · 2.00 per game	11 of 48 · 0.69 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

7 Marseille wins1 draws0 Nantes wins

Goals per game1.88 – 0.63 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

2 Mar 2025Marseille2–0Nantes
3 Nov 2024Nantes1–2Marseille
10 Mar 2024Marseille2–0Nantes
1 Sep 2023Nantes1–1Marseille
1 Feb 2023Nantes0–2Marseille
20 Aug 2022Marseille2–1Nantes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.25	0.88
Conceded per game	0.94	1.75
Match goals	3.19	2.63	3.18
Over 1.5	63%	69%
Over 2.5	63%	44%	62%
Over 3.5	38%	25%
Both teams scored	44%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	38%	13%
Failed to score	19%	44%
Games	16	16

	Marseille	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	0.90
Conceded per game	1.00	2.10
Match goals	3.40	3.00	3.18
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	62%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	3.20
Corners conceded	3.73	6.60
Match total	8.86	9.80	9.36
Over 8.5	40% 6/15	73% 11/15
Over 9.5	40% 6/15	60% 9/15
Over 10.5	27% 4/15	53% 8/15
Cards
Cards	2.25	1.75
Opponent cards	1.50	2.06
Match total	3.75	3.81	4.06
Over 3.5	56% 9/16	56% 9/16
Over 4.5	38% 6/16	31% 5/16

	Marseille	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	2.78
Corners conceded	3.80	7.11
Match total	8.90	9.89	9.36
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.80
Opponent cards	1.90	2.20
Match total	4.10	4.00	4.06
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 59 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.37league 3.69

Red cards0.27league 0.34

Cards 5+29%league 36%

Fouls26.1league 24.1

Penalties0.32league 0.47

Home wins39%league 50%

Marseille3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against3 · 0

W23 Aug 25H · Paris FC5–21
L8 Nov 24H · Auxerre1–33
D12 Jan 24H · Strasbourg1–13

Nantes7 with this referee

Record2-3-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

D10 May 25A · Auxerre1–11
D10 Jan 25H · Monaco2–23
L6 Oct 24A · Lyon0–22
W22 Oct 23H · Montpellier2–02
L2 Apr 23H · Reims0–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.