Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel159 kmRest days6.1 · 6.8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Marseille—%
Draw—%
Nice—%
Weather (Marseille)
Forecast from 20 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Marseille and Nice. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Marseille
+0.50
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.83xG against1.33
-
Alert
Marseille
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Marseille
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Marseille
Nice
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
48
AttackIn forecast
26
46
DefenceIn forecast
35
41
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleNice
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
71%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
13.14
ShotsContext
11.71
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
38%
On target shareContext
32%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
62%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
7%
1.40
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.86
Shots allowedContext
11.86
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
4.83
BlocksContext
3.00
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
73%
Save rateContext
65%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
587
PassesContext
546
521
Accurate passesContext
478
89%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.71
FoulsContext
9.29
10.86
Fouls sufferedContext
8.14
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
12.00
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
38%
On target shareContext
30%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
63%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.70
16.20
Shots allowedContext
12.60
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.78
BlocksContext
3.60
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
70%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
547
PassesContext
508
481
Accurate passesContext
439
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.20
FoulsContext
9.40
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
LLWLW
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,040 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Nice
DLWWL
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel159 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Nov | 6.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 28 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 159 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,040 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
19G. Kondogbia
4C. Egan-Riley
22T. Weah
6Tochukwu Nnadi
14Igor Paixão
8H. Abdelli
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
Nice
Last XI · not confirmed
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
6H. Boudaoui
28A. Witsel
92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura
7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Nice
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Nice · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Strasbourg | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Marseille wins3 draws3 Nice wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.20
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 26 Apr 2026Marseille1–1Nice
- 21 Nov 2025Nice1–5Marseille
- 26 Jan 2025Nice2–0Marseille
- 14 Sep 2024Marseille2–0Nice
- 24 Apr 2024Marseille2–2Nice
- 21 Oct 2023Nice1–0Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Marseille | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 8.71 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 2.72 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Marseille | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.90 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Marseille7 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Nice7 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
