Estac Troyes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel289 kmRest days6.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Estac Troyes—%
Draw—%
Lyon—%
Weather (Troyes)
Forecast from 20 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Estac Troyes and Lyon. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Lyon
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Lyon
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Lyon
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estac Troyes
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.03xG against1.44
-
Alert
Estac Troyes
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Estac Troyes
5
Losses in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Attack
-
Trend
Lyon
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Lyon
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Lyon
5
Scoring in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Insight
Lyon
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Lyon
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Estac Troyes
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estac Troyes
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.03xG against1.44
-
Insight
Lyon
−0.25
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.32xG against1.57
Team strength
Estac TroyesLyon
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
12
AttackIn forecast
55
19
DefenceIn forecast
56
7
Form indexContext
85
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Estac TroyesLyon
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
2.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.64
43%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
14.29
ShotsContext
12.29
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
21%
On target shareContext
38%
10.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.57
73%
Box shareContext
71%
5%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.43
Shots allowedContext
11.86
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
3.00
BlocksContext
1.71
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
55%
Save rateContext
79%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
359
PassesContext
468
287
Accurate passesContext
400
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.52
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.29
FoulsContext
11.00
12.71
Fouls sufferedContext
14.14
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.10
ShotsContext
12.70
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.89
25%
On target shareContext
42%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
64%
Box shareContext
72%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.57
13.90
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.10
BlocksContext
2.30
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
63%
Save rateContext
76%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
351
PassesContext
457
279
Accurate passesContext
389
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.10
FoulsContext
10.50
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estac Troyes
LLLLL
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,134 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
Lyon
WWLWW
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel289 km1,118 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estac Troyes |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 28 Nov | 5.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 289 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,134 km | 1,118 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estac Troyes
Last XI · not confirmed
33P. Beach(G)
5P. Gozzi
4M. Diaz
6A. Monfray
2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim
8M. Diop
23T. Nkada
17A. Mille
10M. Ifnaoui
20R. Ripart
Lyon
Last XI · not confirmed
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
13Z. Athekame
2M. Bidstrup
6F. Tessmann
24J. Duranville
99N. Nartey
26K. Boudache
10P. Šulc
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estac Troyes
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lyon
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Estac Troyes · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.75
Lyon · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Estac Troyes | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Estac Troyes wins0 draws4 Lyon wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 4 Feb 2023Estac Troyes1–3Lyon
- 19 Aug 2022Lyon4–1Estac Troyes
- 16 Jan 2022Estac Troyes0–1Lyon
- 22 Sep 2021Lyon3–1Estac Troyes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estac Troyes | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.57 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Estac Troyes | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 10% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estac Troyes | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 6.29 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.58 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 2.86 | 3.71 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Estac Troyes | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 10.40 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.60 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Estac Troyes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
46-60
61-75
1
5
76-90
Lyon7 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
6
46-60
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
