Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 31st · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–1Full time

Olympiakos Piraeus 15th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Olympiakos Piraeus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Olympiakos Piraeus. Marseille were without P. Højbjerg. Olympiakos Piraeus were without B. Popović and A. El Kaabi. Marseille had 4 days of rest, Olympiakos Piraeus 29 and had to travel 1,648 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,648 kmRest days4 · 29Matches / 14d1 · 0

Marseille35%

Draw24%

Olympiakos Piraeus41%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.63

Marseille36%

Draw26%

Olympiakos Piraeus38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Marseille35%

Draw24%

Olympiakos Piraeus41%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.61

Marseille28%

Draw23%

Olympiakos Piraeus49%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.83

Marseille35%

Draw24%

Olympiakos Piraeus41%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.57

Over 2.5 60% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Marseille)

20°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 79%

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 200

Team strength

Marseille

Olympiakos Piraeus

46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

48 AttackIn forecast 54

46 DefenceIn forecast 68

20 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack−17%

Defense risk+18%

Olympiakos Piraeus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Marseille

Olympiakos Piraeus

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.53

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.59

70% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

13.50 ShotsContext 17.50

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

39% On target shareContext 27%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

61% Box shareContext 56%

10% ConversionContext 6%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.90

16.70 Shots allowedContext 6.60

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.70

4.67 BlocksContext 2.75

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

70% Save rateContext 81%

54% PossessionIn forecast 59%

522 PassesContext 486

455 Accurate passesContext 389

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.80 FoulsContext 11.40

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille LLLLW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,131 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 3 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -3.8 vs expected

W11 OctA · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
L20 SepH · Paris Saint Germain1–20.8 xPts
L17 SepA · Besiktas1–41.1 xPts
L11 SepA · Rennes0–11.2 xPts
L6 SepH · Paris FC2–31.9 xPts

Olympiakos Piraeus W

Rest29 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,648 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 60 · 3 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

W16 SepH · Jagiellonia2–12.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	Olympiakos Piraeus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Ligue 1 2026-2027, 11 Oct	29UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,648 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,131 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 21N. Aguerd 18B. Meïté 22T. Weah

6Tochukwu Nnadi 8H. Abdelli

14Igor Paixão 7A. Gomes 48K. Abdallah

11N. Maupay

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Olympiakos Piraeus Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. Ortega(G)

70S. Onyemaechi 5L. Pirola 45P. Retsos 2E. Saliakas

32S. Hezze 15G. Puerta

20Jota Silva 22Chiquinho 10Gelson Martins

11R. Yaremchuk

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals

Attack line −12.7% · Defence line −15.8% of weighted minutes

MID P. Højbjerg Starter 7.14 Att −12.7% Def −13.6%
DEF D. Cornelius Rotation 6.21 Def −2.3%

Olympiakos Piraeus Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −16.2% · Defence line −14.5% of weighted minutes

DEF B. Popović Core 7.70 Def −12.9%
ATT A. El Kaabi Starter 6.78 Att −12.5%
MID Joel Roca Rotation 6.20 Att −1.6% Def −0.9%
MID Lorenzo Scipioni Rotation 6.74 Att −1.1% Def −0.7%
ATT Y. Yazıcı Depth 6.59 Att −0.5%
ATT Clayton Depth 6.57 Att −0.4%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): M. Mouandilmadji

Total impact vs full squads

Marseille+0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Olympiakos Piraeus+0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home No home games yet this season.

Olympiakos Piraeus · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	Olympiakos Piraeus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	4.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	3.00	3.11
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	60%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Marseille	Olympiakos Piraeus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	3.11
Over 1.5	80%	67%
Over 2.5	60%	67%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	67%	62%
Clean sheets	30%	33%
Failed to score	30%	33%
Games	10	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	Olympiakos Piraeus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	—
Corners conceded	3.00	—
Match total	7.00	—	9.67
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	—
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	3.00	5.00	3.71
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Marseille	Olympiakos Piraeus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	5.86
Corners conceded	5.44	2.86
Match total	10.00	8.72	9.67
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.70
Opponent cards	2.30	1.60
Match total	4.20	3.30	3.71
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.75league 3.58

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+35%league 38%

Fouls22.6league 24.7

Penalties0.20league 0.23

Home wins44%league 38%

Marseille1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 6.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W15 Aug 23H · Panathinaikos2–12

Olympiakos Piraeus2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D24 Feb 26A · Bayer Leverkusen0–01
L26 Nov 25H · Real Madrid3–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.