Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were slight favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 54). Absences weigh more on Paris Saint Germain. Marseille had 10 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 8.1 and had to travel 661 km.
Away travel661 kmRest days10 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Marseille18%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain60%
Marseille18%
Draw23%
Paris Saint Germain58%
Marseille18%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain60%
Marseille14%
Draw19%
Paris Saint Germain67%
Marseille19%
Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain57%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 91
Team strength
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
48
AttackIn forecast
91
46
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleParis Saint Germain
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.87
50%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
13.25
ShotsContext
16.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
34%
On target shareContext
33%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
64%
Box shareContext
54%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.25
Shots allowedContext
8.25
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
67%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
75%
599
PassesContext
838
542
Accurate passesContext
779
90%
Pass accuracyContext
93%
7.06
Team ratingContext
7.17
12.25
FoulsContext
7.50
10.25
Fouls sufferedContext
7.50
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
2.10
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.60
ShotsContext
17.20
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.90
39%
On target shareContext
40%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
70%
Box shareContext
63%
19%
ConversionContext
17%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.83
10.80
Shots allowedContext
8.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.89
BlocksContext
3.25
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
73%
Save rateContext
74%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
573
PassesContext
670
514
Accurate passesContext
612
90%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
7.13
Team ratingContext
7.24
11.60
FoulsContext
9.10
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris Saint Germain
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel661 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Sep | 8.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 661 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
21N. Aguerd
5L. Balerdi
28B. Pavard
33Emerson
23P. Højbjerg
17M. O'Riley
22T. Weah
14Igor Paixão
10M. Greenwood
9A. Gouiri
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
25Nuno Mendes
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
5Marquinhos
8Fabián Ruiz
17Vitinha
33W. Zaïre-Emery
7K. Kvaratskhelia
9Gonçalo Ramos
2A. Hakimi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Paris Saint Germain-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 4.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Paris Saint Germain · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Marseille wins1 draws7 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game0.25 – 2.25
Over 2.563%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets13% · 75%
- 16 Mar 2025Paris Saint Germain3–1Marseille
- 27 Oct 2024Marseille0–3Paris Saint Germain
- 31 Mar 2024Marseille0–2Paris Saint Germain
- 24 Sep 2023Paris Saint Germain4–0Marseille
- 26 Feb 2023Marseille0–3Paris Saint Germain
- 16 Oct 2022Paris Saint Germain1–0Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Marseille | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.33 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 1.50 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Marseille | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 8.22 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.60 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.68
Red cards0.24league 0.36
Cards 5+32%league 39%
Fouls24.2league 24.0
Penalties0.36league 0.55
Home wins36%league 66%
Marseille11 with this referee
Record7-3-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 2
- W19 Apr 25H · Montpellier5–11
- W2 Feb 25H · Lyon3–24
- W8 Dec 24A · Saint Etienne2–01
- D25 Nov 23A · Strasbourg1–12
- D18 Aug 23A · Metz2–22
Paris Saint Germain11 with this referee
Record6-3-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D6 Oct 24A · Nice1–12
- W17 Feb 24A · Nantes2–00
- W14 Jan 24A · Lens2–01
- W9 Dec 23H · Nantes2–11
- W29 Oct 23A · Stade Brestois 293–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille4 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Paris Saint Germain4 games · scored 10 · conceded 3
4
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
5
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 29 · conceded 8
6
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
8
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
