Marseille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Marseille18.4%fair odds 5.44
Draw22.0%fair odds 4.54
Paris Saint Germain59.6%fair odds 1.68
Expected goals1.05 – 2.03total 3.08
Likeliest score1–110.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Paris Saint Germain
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Marseille ↓ · Paris Saint Germain → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Marseille goals, columns Paris Saint Germain goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%9.71
- 1–29.9%10.06
- 0–29.5%10.55
- 0–18.8%11.37
- 1–36.7%14.83
- 0–36.4%15.57
- 2–25.2%19.17
- 2–15.1%19.49
- 0–05.1%19.61
- 1–04.3%23.32
Winning margin
1.9%
Marseille by 3+
fair 52.68
4.9%
Marseille by 2
fair 20.53
11.6%
Marseille by 1
fair 8.62
22.0%
Draw
fair 4.54
23.0%
Paris Saint Germain by 1
fair 4.35
18.3%
Paris Saint Germain by 2
fair 5.47
18.3%
Paris Saint Germain by 3+
fair 5.46
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Marseille goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
Paris Saint Germain goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille win | 18.4% | 18.9% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 22.0% | 23.7% | -1.6 pp |
| Paris Saint Germain win | 59.6% | 57.5% | +2.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 53.5% | +6.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 52.8% | +4.2 pp |
| Expected goals Marseille | 1.05 | 0.97 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Paris Saint Germain | 2.03 | 1.85 | +0.19 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Marseille win18.4%5.44
- Draw22.0%4.54
- Paris Saint Germain win59.6%1.68
- Double chance Marseille or draw40.4%2.48
- Double chance Marseille or Paris Saint Germain78.0%1.28
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw81.6%1.23
- Draw no bet Marseille23.6%4.24
- Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain76.4%1.31
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.5%1.68
- Over 3.537.1%2.69
- Over 4.519.9%5.03
- Under 1.518.2%5.50
- Under 2.540.5%2.47
- Under 3.562.9%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes57.0%1.75
- No43.0%2.33
- Yes and over 2.546.7%2.14
- Marseille win and yes10.4%9.62
- Draw and yes16.9%5.91
- Paris Saint Germain win and yes29.7%3.37
Team goals
- Marseille over 0.565.0%1.54
- Marseille over 1.528.2%3.54
- Marseille over 2.59.0%11.16
- Paris Saint Germain over 0.586.9%1.15
- Paris Saint Germain over 1.560.3%1.66
- Paris Saint Germain over 2.533.3%3.01
- Marseille clean sheet13.1%7.64
- Paris Saint Germain clean sheet35.0%2.86
- Marseille win to nil8.0%12.53
- Paris Saint Germain win to nil29.9%3.34
Handicap
- Marseille −1.56.8%14.78
- Marseille −2.51.9%52.68
- Paris Saint Germain +1.593.2%1.07
- Paris Saint Germain +2.598.1%1.02
- Paris Saint Germain −1.536.6%2.73
- Marseille +1.563.4%1.58
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won70.5%
Avg chance given to result48.3%
1X2 Brier0.455
Over 2.5 called right59.1%
BTTS called right54.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.4% | 66.7% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 44.7% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 54.3% | 85.7% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.9% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 75.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 90.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 17 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4827 | 0.4893 |
| Avg chance given to result | 47.2% | 46.1% |
| Favourite won | 58.8% | 52.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.