Marseille vs Stade Brestois 29 – 8 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 8 · 16:00 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 2nd · 22 pts · 11 played WWLDW

3–0Full time

Stade Brestois 29 13th · 10 pts · 11 played DDLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Marseille were slight favourites.

Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 37). Absences weigh more on Marseille. Marseille had 6.8 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 5.8 and had to travel 950 km.

Away travel950 kmRest days6.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d3 · 2

Marseille56%

Draw24%

Stade Brestois 2920%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.01

Marseille57%

Draw24%

Stade Brestois 2919%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.98

Marseille58%

Draw24%

Stade Brestois 2919%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.97

Marseille48%

Draw26%

Stade Brestois 2926%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.13

Marseille55%

Draw24%

Stade Brestois 2921%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.02

Over 2.5 54% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Marseille)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 96

Team strength

Marseille

Stade Brestois 29

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

48 AttackIn forecast 47

46 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Marseille

Stade Brestois 29

2.27 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.64

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.62 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

82% Scored inContext 55%

36% Clean sheetsContext 27%

13.27 ShotsContext 12.55

5.18 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.73

39% On target shareContext 30%

8.36 Shots in the boxContext 8.27

65% Box shareContext 68%

17% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.63

9.18 Shots allowedContext 11.91

3.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.67 BlocksContext 3.80

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

77% Save rateContext 65%

59% PossessionIn forecast 44%

584 PassesContext 371

525 Accurate passesContext 294

90% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.27 FoulsContext 12.64

9.64 Fouls sufferedContext 10.55

2.36 Yellow cardsContext 1.55

0.27 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

0.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.80 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

90% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.30 ShotsContext 12.00

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

41% On target shareContext 30%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

60% Box shareContext 69%

17% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.71

9.40 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

2.44 BlocksContext 3.78

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

78% Save rateContext 67%

55% PossessionIn forecast 44%

537 PassesContext 372

476 Accurate passesContext 296

89% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.20 FoulsContext 12.90

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,674 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Stade Brestois 29

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel950 km714 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Nov	5.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	950 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,674 km	714 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13.2	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Rulli(G)

33Emerson 21N. Aguerd 28B. Pavard 62A. Murillo

18A. Vermeeren 23P. Højbjerg

14Igor Paixão 8A. Gomes 10M. Greenwood

97P. Aubameyang

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1R. Majecki(G)

2B. Locko 44S. Coulibaly 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

99P. Mboup 10R. Del Castillo 17M. Baldé

19L. Ajorque

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Stade Brestois 29 Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Marseille-1.9 pp
Draw+0.5 pp
Stade Brestois 29+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home 2.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-0
Scored: 3.60
Conceded: 1.20

Stade Brestois 29 · Away 0.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Marseille	Stade Brestois 29
Angers	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Lens	L 1–2 A	L 1–3 A
LE Havre	W 6–2 H	L 0–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 H
Lorient	W 4–0 H	D 3–3 A
Lyon	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Paris FC	W 5–2 H	L 1–2 H
Points	13 of 21 · 1.86 per game	5 of 21 · 0.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Marseille wins1 draws3 Stade Brestois 29 wins

Goals per game2.25 – 1.13 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

27 Apr 2025Marseille4–1Stade Brestois 29
17 Aug 2024Stade Brestois 291–5Marseille
18 Feb 2024Stade Brestois 291–0Marseille
26 Aug 2023Marseille2–0Stade Brestois 29
27 May 2023Marseille1–2Stade Brestois 29
14 Aug 2022Stade Brestois 291–1Marseille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	2.27	1.27
Conceded per game	1.00	1.64
Match goals	3.27	2.91	2.82
Over 1.5	64%	73%
Over 2.5	64%	55%	54%
Over 3.5	36%	36%
Both teams scored	45%	45%	54%
Clean sheets	36%	27%
Failed to score	18%	45%
Games	11	11

	Marseille	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	3.50	2.60	2.82
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	4.73
Corners conceded	3.60	5.18
Match total	8.40	9.91	9.51
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	45% 5/11
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	45% 5/11
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	45% 5/11
Cards
Cards	2.64	1.64
Opponent cards	1.73	1.45
Match total	4.37	3.09	4.18
Over 3.5	73% 8/11	36% 4/11
Over 4.5	55% 6/11	18% 2/11

	Marseille	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	5.00
Corners conceded	3.33	5.50
Match total	6.89	10.50	9.51
Over 8.5	11% 1/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	11% 1/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	1.50
Match total	4.70	3.10	4.18
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 96 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.84

Red cards0.26league 0.30

Cards 5+40%league 38%

Fouls24.7league 24.3

Penalties0.43league 0.47

Home wins44%league 51%

Marseille13 with this referee

Record5-3-5 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds2

W10 May 25A · LE Havre3–12
L29 Mar 25A · Reims1–30
D14 Dec 24H · Lille1–12
L29 Sep 24A · Strasbourg0–11
D27 Jan 24H · Monaco2–21

Stade Brestois 294 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 0

W28 Sep 25A · Angers2–01
W3 May 23H · Nantes2–00
D30 Oct 22H · Reims0–01
L26 Sep 21H · Metz1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.