Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel950 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Marseille—%
Draw—%
Stade Brestois 29—%
Weather (Marseille)
Forecast from 26 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Marseille and Stade Brestois 29. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Stade Brestois 29
+0.73
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.02xG against1.29
-
Trend
Stade Brestois 29
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Marseille
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Stade Brestois 29
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Marseille
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Marseille
+0.50
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.83xG against1.33
Attack
-
Insight
Stade Brestois 29
+0.73
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.02xG against1.29
-
Trend
Stade Brestois 29
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Stade Brestois 29
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Marseille
+0.50
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.83xG against1.33
-
Trend
Marseille
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
MarseilleStade Brestois 29
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
48
AttackIn forecast
47
46
DefenceIn forecast
36
41
Form indexContext
49
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleStade Brestois 29
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
2.55
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.69
71%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.14
ShotsContext
17.14
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.86
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.29
62%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.40
15.86
Shots allowedContext
11.71
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
4.83
BlocksContext
2.57
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
73%
Save rateContext
76%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
587
PassesContext
408
521
Accurate passesContext
333
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.71
FoulsContext
14.14
10.86
Fouls sufferedContext
13.29
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.40
ShotsContext
16.10
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
38%
On target shareContext
33%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
63%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.43
16.20
Shots allowedContext
12.30
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.78
BlocksContext
3.30
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
70%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
547
PassesContext
414
481
Accurate passesContext
340
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.20
FoulsContext
12.80
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
LLWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,320 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Stade Brestois 29
WLLWD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel950 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 3 Apr | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 3 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 950 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,320 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
19G. Kondogbia
4C. Egan-Riley
22T. Weah
6Tochukwu Nnadi
14Igor Paixão
8H. Abdelli
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
Stade Brestois 29
Last XI · not confirmed
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko
4G. Lloris
29L. Tousart
70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup
23K. Doumbia
17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Stade Brestois 29
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | W 5–2 A | W 5–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Marseille wins1 draws4 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game2.10 – 1.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 20 Feb 2026Stade Brestois 292–0Marseille
- 8 Nov 2025Marseille3–0Stade Brestois 29
- 27 Apr 2025Marseille4–1Stade Brestois 29
- 17 Aug 2024Stade Brestois 291–5Marseille
- 18 Feb 2024Stade Brestois 291–0Marseille
- 26 Aug 2023Marseille2–0Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 3.29 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 86% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Marseille | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.90 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 8.86 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Marseille | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.30 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.40 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Marseille7 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Stade Brestois 297 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
