Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 17). Nice come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Metz had 7 days of rest, Nice 2.9 and had to travel 608 km.
Away travel608 kmRest days7 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 4
Metz30%
Draw27%
Nice43%
Metz26%
Draw26%
Nice47%
Metz30%
Draw27%
Nice43%
Metz24%
Draw26%
Nice50%
Metz27%
Draw26%
Nice47%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 76
Team strength
Metz
Nice
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
11
AttackIn forecast
26
17
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzNice
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.45
2.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
55%
Scored inContext
82%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
8.55
ShotsContext
10.36
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
35%
On target shareContext
38%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
67%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.82
Shots allowedContext
16.45
5.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.09
3.10
BlocksContext
5.73
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.82
65%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
439
PassesContext
384
378
Accurate passesContext
317
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.00
FoulsContext
12.09
11.64
Fouls sufferedContext
12.91
1.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
2.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.20
ShotsContext
8.60
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
36%
On target shareContext
37%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
67%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.40
Shots allowedContext
19.10
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.11
BlocksContext
7.60
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
66%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
448
PassesContext
333
388
Accurate passesContext
262
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.50
FoulsContext
11.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,215 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nice
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel608 km3,065 km in 14d
Schedule load59%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | High · 59 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 608 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,215 km | 3,065 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 4 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 12.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
2M. Colin
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
39K. Kouao
20J. Deminguet
12Alpha Touré
7G. Tsitaishvili
10G. Hein
14C. Sabaly
30M. Diallo
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
2A. Abdi
24C. Vanhoutte
6H. Boudaoui
92J. Clauss
10S. Diop
90Kevin Carlos
25M. Cho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Nice-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
1.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nice · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lille | L 1–6 A | W 2–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Monaco | L 2–5 A | D 2–2 A |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Lyon | L 0–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 21 · 0.57 per game | 11 of 21 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Metz wins0 draws3 Nice wins
Goals per game0.25 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets25% · 75%
- 27 Jan 2024Nice1–0Metz
- 7 Oct 2023Metz0–1Nice
- 23 Jan 2022Metz0–2Nice
- 27 Nov 2021Nice0–1Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.45 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.36 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 3.27 | 2.91 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 64% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Metz | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.91 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.73 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 9.64 | 11.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 4/11 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.55 | 2.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.36 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 2.91 | 4.27 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 5/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 2/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Metz | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.30 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.82
Red cards0.25league 0.30
Cards 5+29%league 38%
Fouls24.4league 24.3
Penalties0.24league 0.50
Home wins49%league 50%
Metz6 with this referee
Record1-1-4
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L21 Sep 25A · Monaco2–50
- L28 Apr 24H · Lille1–21
- L27 Jan 24A · Nice0–11
- W16 Sep 23A · Lens1–02
- D30 Oct 21H · Saint Etienne1–10
Nice6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds4
- W16 Feb 25A · LE Havre3–12
- W27 Jan 24H · Metz1–01
- W10 Feb 23H · Ajaccio3–01
- D26 Feb 22A · Strasbourg0–03
- W9 Jan 22A · Stade Brestois 293–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz11 games · scored 10 · conceded 26
2
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
11
76-90
Nice11 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 10 · conceded 25
2
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
10
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
