Metz vs Paris Saint Germain – 13 Dec 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 13 · 18:00 Stade Saint-Symphorien, Longeville-lès-Metz

Metz 18th · 11 pts · 15 played WWLLL

2–3Full time

Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 33 pts · 15 played WWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 17). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Metz had 6.1 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 6.9 and had to travel 278 km.

Away travel278 kmRest days6.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Metz5%

Draw12%

Paris Saint Germain83%

Expected goals 0.69 – 2.99

Metz6%

Draw13%

Paris Saint Germain81%

Expected goals 0.64 – 2.77

Metz5%

Draw12%

Paris Saint Germain83%

Expected goals 0.67 – 2.97

Metz3%

Draw9%

Paris Saint Germain88%

Expected goals 0.61 – 3.35

Metz6%

Draw13%

Paris Saint Germain81%

Expected goals 0.67 – 2.78

Over 2.5 71% Both score 48% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 50

Team strength

Metz

Paris Saint Germain

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

12 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

11 AttackIn forecast 91

17 DefenceIn forecast 83

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Metz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Metz

Paris Saint Germain

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.13

2.27 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.83

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.52

60% Scored inContext 87%

20% Clean sheetsContext 53%

8.60 ShotsContext 17.13

3.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33

34% On target shareContext 37%

6.31 Shots in the boxContext 9.93

65% Box shareContext 57%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.64 OffsidesContext 1.44

14.40 Shots allowedContext 8.53

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.23

3.00 BlocksContext 2.75

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.55

64% Save rateContext 72%

49% PossessionIn forecast 70%

443 PassesContext 732

381 Accurate passesContext 671

86% Pass accuracyContext 92%

6.71 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.73 FoulsContext 9.93

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 8.73

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.13

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

60% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

8.50 ShotsContext 18.40

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60

38% On target shareContext 36%

5.78 Shots in the boxContext 11.20

62% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.75

14.50 Shots allowedContext 8.20

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.10 BlocksContext 1.89

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

67% Save rateContext 68%

49% PossessionIn forecast 70%

429 PassesContext 686

368 Accurate passesContext 622

86% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.69 Team ratingContext 7.00

10.60 FoulsContext 9.10

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Metz

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km478 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris Saint Germain

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel278 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Metz	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Dec	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	278 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	478 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	21.9	22.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Metz Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Jonathan Fischer(G)

2M. Colin 15T. Yegbe 5J. Gbamin 39K. Kouao

8B. Traoré 20J. Deminguet

7G. Tsitaishvili 10G. Hein 11M. Mbaye

30M. Diallo

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

21L. Hernández 51W. Pacho 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery

8Fabián Ruiz 17Vitinha 47Quentin Ndjantou

49I. Mbaye 9Gonçalo Ramos 19K. Lee

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Metz Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Metz+0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Paris Saint Germain-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Metz · Home 1.14points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-3
Scored: 0.71
Conceded: 1.00

Paris Saint Germain · Away 1.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.88
Conceded: 1.13

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Metz	Paris Saint Germain
Auxerre	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 H
Rennes	L 0–1 H	W 5–0 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 2–3 A	W 3–0 A
Nice	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Nantes	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 A
Lens	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Lille	L 1–6 A	D 1–1 A
Toulouse	L 0–4 A	W 6–3 A
Marseille	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 A
LE Havre	D 0–0 H	W 3–0 H
Monaco	L 2–5 A	L 0–1 A
Angers	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Lyon	L 0–3 A	W 3–2 A
Strasbourg	L 0–1 H	D 3–3 H
Points	11 of 42 · 0.79 per game	32 of 42 · 2.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Metz wins0 draws4 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game0.50 – 3.00 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

19 May 2024Metz0–2Paris Saint Germain
20 Dec 2023Paris Saint Germain3–1Metz
21 May 2022Paris Saint Germain5–0Metz
22 Sep 2021Metz1–2Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Metz	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.13
Conceded per game	2.27	0.80
Match goals	3.27	2.93	3.67
Over 1.5	80%	67%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	71%
Over 3.5	40%	27%
Both teams scored	47%	33%	48%
Clean sheets	20%	53%
Failed to score	40%	13%
Games	15	15

	Metz	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.20
Conceded per game	2.10	0.80
Match goals	3.10	3.00	3.67
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	71%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Metz	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.31
Corners conceded	5.33	3.54
Match total	9.33	8.85	9.29
Over 8.5	40% 6/15	54% 7/13
Over 9.5	20% 3/15	31% 4/13
Over 10.5	20% 3/15	15% 2/13
Cards
Cards	1.53	1.13
Opponent cards	1.53	1.93
Match total	3.06	3.06	4.05
Over 3.5	47% 7/15	27% 4/15
Over 4.5	27% 4/15	13% 2/15

	Metz	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.89
Corners conceded	5.20	3.44
Match total	9.20	9.33	9.29
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	2.50
Match total	3.50	3.90	4.05
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.74league 3.69

Red cards0.36league 0.32

Cards 5+40%league 36%

Fouls26.1league 24.1

Penalties0.36league 0.47

Home wins54%league 52%

Metz4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W12 Apr 24H · Lens2–12
L4 Feb 24H · Lorient1–23
L10 Dec 23H · Stade Brestois 290–13
L22 Oct 23A · Monaco1–23

Paris Saint Germain

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.