Metz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Metz
18th · 11 pts · 15 played
WWLLL
2–3Full time
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · 33 pts · 15 played
WWWLW
Metz5.4%fair odds 18.49
Draw11.7%fair odds 8.55
Paris Saint Germain82.9%fair odds 1.21
Expected goals0.69 – 2.99total 3.67
Likeliest score0–211.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Paris Saint Germain
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Metz ↓ · Paris Saint Germain → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 4.1 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Metz goals, columns Paris Saint Germain goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.3%8.84
- 0–311.3%8.89
- 0–48.4%11.91
- 1–27.8%12.84
- 1–37.8%12.90
- 0–17.3%13.70
- 1–45.8%17.28
- 1–15.5%18.19
- 0–55.0%19.95
- 1–53.5%28.95
Winning margin
0.3%
Metz by 3+
fair 375.02
1.1%
Metz by 2
fair 87.90
4.0%
Metz by 1
fair 24.97
11.7%
Draw
fair 8.55
18.3%
Paris Saint Germain by 1
fair 5.47
21.4%
Paris Saint Germain by 2
fair 4.68
43.3%
Paris Saint Germain by 3+
fair 2.31
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
17%2
21%3
19%4
31%5+
Metz goals
50%0
35%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
Paris Saint Germain goals
5%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
35%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 5.4% | 6.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 11.7% | 13.1% | -1.4 pp |
| Paris Saint Germain win | 82.9% | 80.9% | +2.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 71.0% | 67.0% | +4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.6% | 46.0% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Metz | 0.69 | 0.67 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Paris Saint Germain | 2.99 | 2.78 | +0.20 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Metz win5.4%18.49
- Draw11.7%8.55
- Paris Saint Germain win82.9%1.21
- Double chance Metz or draw17.1%5.85
- Double chance Metz or Paris Saint Germain88.3%1.13
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw94.6%1.06
- Draw no bet Metz6.1%16.33
- Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain93.9%1.07
Goals
- Over 0.597.2%1.03
- Over 1.588.4%1.13
- Over 2.571.0%1.41
- Over 3.550.0%2.00
- Over 4.530.8%3.25
- Under 1.511.6%8.63
- Under 2.529.0%3.45
- Under 3.550.0%2.00
Both teams to score
- Yes47.6%2.10
- No52.4%1.91
- Yes and over 2.542.1%2.38
- Metz win and yes3.2%31.56
- Draw and yes8.9%11.26
- Paris Saint Germain win and yes35.5%2.82
Team goals
- Metz over 0.549.8%2.01
- Metz over 1.515.2%6.58
- Metz over 2.53.3%30.46
- Paris Saint Germain over 0.594.9%1.05
- Paris Saint Germain over 1.579.9%1.25
- Paris Saint Germain over 2.557.3%1.74
- Metz clean sheet5.1%19.78
- Paris Saint Germain clean sheet50.2%1.99
- Metz win to nil2.2%44.64
- Paris Saint Germain win to nil47.4%2.11
Handicap
- Metz −1.51.4%71.21
- Metz −2.50.3%375.02
- Paris Saint Germain +1.598.6%1.01
- Paris Saint Germain +2.599.7%1.00
- Paris Saint Germain −1.564.6%1.55
- Metz +1.535.4%2.83
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored137
Favourite won54.7%
Avg chance given to result42.3%
1X2 Brier0.573
Over 2.5 called right54.7%
BTTS called right51.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.0% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 43 | 44.6% | 46.5% |
| 50–60% | 34 | 53.8% | 47.1% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 64.9% | 70.0% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.8% | 76.9% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 85.6% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 110 of 137 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6059 | 0.5909 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 49.1% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 110 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 137 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.