Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were clear favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Monaco. Monaco had 7.1 days of rest, Angers 6.1 and had to travel 746 km.
Away travel746 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Monaco65%
Draw22%
Angers13%
Monaco63%
Draw22%
Angers15%
Monaco66%
Draw21%
Angers13%
Monaco58%
Draw25%
Angers17%
Monaco66%
Draw21%
Angers13%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 10
Team strength
Monaco
Angers
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
45
AttackIn forecast
22
56
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoAngers
1.65
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.96
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
74%
Scored inContext
65%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
11.91
ShotsContext
8.91
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
34%
On target shareContext
37%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
68%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
3.06
OffsidesContext
1.85
12.83
Shots allowedContext
13.61
4.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.05
3.65
BlocksContext
2.87
3.26
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.77
64%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
460
PassesContext
410
385
Accurate passesContext
342
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.96
FoulsContext
10.83
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.96
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.70
ShotsContext
9.70
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
40%
On target shareContext
40%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
67%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.60
14.70
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
4.90
BlocksContext
2.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
59%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
405
PassesContext
452
335
Accurate passesContext
382
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.10
FoulsContext
9.90
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,643 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Angers
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel746 km427 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 746 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,643 km | 427 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
25W. Faes
6D. Zakaria
5J. Kehrer
12Caio Henrique
23Aladji Bamba
15M. Camara
4J. Teze
10A. Golovin
31Ansu Fati
9F. Balogun
Angers
Confirmed XI
40O. Pona(G)
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
26F. Hanin
6L. Mouton
93H. Belkebla
14Y. Belkhdim
27L. Rao-Lisoa
35P. Peter
9G. Koyalipou
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Angers+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
1.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-4
- Scored
- 2.08
- Conceded
- 1.58
Angers · Away
0.82points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 0.55
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nantes | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| Nice | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Rennes | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lorient | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Lyon | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Marseille | L 0–1 A | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | L 0–5 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 33 of 66 · 1.50 per game | 28 of 66 · 1.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Monaco wins1 draws1 Angers wins
Goals per game1.71 – 0.57
Over 2.529%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 18 Oct 2025Angers1–1Monaco
- 15 Mar 2025Angers0–2Monaco
- 1 Nov 2024Monaco0–1Angers
- 7 May 2023Angers1–2Monaco
- 30 Oct 2022Monaco2–0Angers
- 1 May 2022Monaco2–0Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.65 | 0.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 2.17 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 26% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 35% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 35% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Monaco | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.09 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 8.92 | 8.23 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 13/23 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 10/23 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 18% 4/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.52 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.26 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 2.74 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 13/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 9% 2/23 | |
| Monaco | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.30 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.80league 3.68
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+30%league 36%
Fouls25.7league 24.0
Penalties0.10league 0.40
Home wins30%league 49%
Monaco1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Oct 25H · Toulouse1–03
Angers2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Nov 25H · Lens1–21
- L5 Oct 25A · Strasbourg0–52
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco23 games · scored 38 · conceded 36
3
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
6
5
46-60
8
6
61-75
10
11
76-90
Angers23 games · scored 22 · conceded 28
1
2
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
7
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
7
61-75
9
3
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
