Monaco
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Monaco45.9%fair odds 2.18
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.78
Lens27.7%fair odds 3.61
Expected goals1.55 – 1.16total 2.71
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lens
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Monaco ↓ · Lens → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Monaco goals, columns Lens goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.94
- 1–09.7%10.30
- 2–19.3%10.77
- 2–08.0%12.45
- 0–07.3%13.72
- 0–17.1%14.16
- 1–26.9%14.47
- 2–25.4%18.63
- 3–14.8%20.79
- 0–24.4%22.49
Winning margin
9.6%
Monaco by 3+
fair 10.44
14.1%
Monaco by 2
fair 7.11
22.2%
Monaco by 1
fair 4.50
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.78
16.4%
Lens by 1
fair 6.11
7.8%
Lens by 2
fair 12.85
3.5%
Lens by 3+
fair 28.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Monaco goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
Lens goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco win | 45.9% | 45.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Lens win | 27.7% | 28.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 51.4% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 55.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Monaco | 1.55 | 1.56 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Lens | 1.16 | 1.17 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Monaco win45.9%2.18
- Draw26.4%3.78
- Lens win27.7%3.61
- Double chance Monaco or draw72.3%1.38
- Double chance Monaco or Lens73.6%1.36
- Double chance Lens or draw54.1%1.85
- Draw no bet Monaco62.4%1.60
- Draw no bet Lens37.6%2.66
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.575.9%1.32
- Over 2.550.9%1.97
- Over 3.528.8%3.47
- Over 4.513.9%7.22
- Under 1.524.1%4.16
- Under 2.549.1%2.04
- Under 3.571.2%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.542.1%2.38
- Monaco win and yes21.7%4.61
- Draw and yes19.2%5.22
- Lens win and yes13.8%7.23
Team goals
- Monaco over 0.578.9%1.27
- Monaco over 1.546.0%2.17
- Monaco over 2.520.5%4.88
- Lens over 0.568.5%1.46
- Lens over 1.532.1%3.11
- Lens over 2.511.1%9.00
- Monaco clean sheet31.5%3.18
- Lens clean sheet21.1%4.73
- Monaco win to nil24.2%4.13
- Lens win to nil13.9%7.22
Handicap
- Monaco −1.523.6%4.23
- Monaco −2.59.6%10.44
- Lens +1.576.4%1.31
- Lens +2.590.4%1.11
- Lens −1.511.3%8.84
- Monaco +1.588.7%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored102
Favourite won53.9%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.569
Over 2.5 called right56.9%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 32 | 44.6% | 40.6% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 54.0% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 65.1% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.6% | 72.7% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 84.7% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 75 of 102 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6156 | 0.5983 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 45.3% | 46.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 75 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Stade Brestois 29 0–0 Lyon30·27·43
- ✓Lens 3–0 Lorient62·22·16
- ✗Toulouse 0–0 LE Havre53·25·21
- ✗Nantes 0–2 Metz52·26·22
- ✓Lille 1–0 Angers69·19·12
- ✗Rennes 4–1 Strasbourg36·27·37
- ✓Auxerre 0–1 Marseille25·25·50
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 102 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.