Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 49). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Monaco had 7.1 days of rest, Lens 6.2 and had to travel 821 km.
Away travel821 kmRest days7.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Monaco46%
Draw26%
Lens28%
Monaco48%
Draw26%
Lens26%
Monaco48%
Draw26%
Lens26%
Monaco38%
Draw27%
Lens34%
Monaco46%
Draw26%
Lens28%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 74
Team strength
Monaco
Lens
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
45
AttackIn forecast
63
56
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoLens
2.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
82%
Scored inContext
64%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.27
ShotsContext
12.18
3.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.27
30%
On target shareContext
35%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.09
69%
Box shareContext
74%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.88
11.64
Shots allowedContext
13.64
3.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
3.91
BlocksContext
4.91
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
60%
Save rateContext
73%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
496
PassesContext
416
420
Accurate passesContext
348
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.55
FoulsContext
12.36
11.55
Fouls sufferedContext
12.27
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.18
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.60
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
36%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
69%
Box shareContext
75%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.90
Shots allowedContext
13.90
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.50
BlocksContext
5.30
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
69%
Save rateContext
73%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
447
PassesContext
414
375
Accurate passesContext
345
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.02
13.70
FoulsContext
12.30
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,598 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Lens
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel821 km558 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 821 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,598 km | 558 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
12Caio Henrique
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
28M. Coulibaly
20K. Ouattara
10A. Golovin
11M. Akliouche
4J. Teze
14M. Biereth
9F. Balogun
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
24J. Gradit
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco-2.2 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Lens+2.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Lens · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lorient | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 H |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game | 15 of 18 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Monaco wins2 draws4 Lens wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 17 May 2025Lens4–0Monaco
- 1 Sep 2024Monaco1–1Lens
- 25 Feb 2024Lens2–3Monaco
- 2 Sep 2023Monaco3–0Lens
- 22 Apr 2023Lens3–0Monaco
- 20 Aug 2022Monaco1–4Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.09 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 3.64 | 2.45 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 45% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 36% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Monaco | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.60 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.27 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.45 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 11.70 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.55 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.73 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 5.09 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 91% 10/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 5/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Monaco | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 10.67 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.10 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.83
Red cards0.26league 0.29
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls24.7league 24.3
Penalties0.36league 0.47
Home wins41%league 51%
Monaco7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- W9 Nov 24A · Strasbourg3–12
- L28 Apr 24A · Lyon2–33
- D17 Mar 24H · Lorient2–23
- W16 Apr 23H · Lorient3–10
- W23 Apr 22A · Saint Etienne4–13
Lens8 with this referee
Record3-5-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D28 Sep 25A · Rennes0–03
- D10 May 25A · Toulouse1–15
- W31 Jan 25A · Montpellier2–03
- D15 Sep 24H · Lyon0–00
- D4 Nov 23A · Lorient0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco11 games · scored 23 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
6
76-90
Lens11 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
