Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Lille. Monaco had 8.1 days of rest, Lille 7.3 and had to travel 829 km.
Away travel829 kmRest days8.1 · 7.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Monaco35%
Draw28%
Lille37%
Monaco42%
Draw27%
Lille31%
Monaco35%
Draw28%
Lille37%
Monaco28%
Draw27%
Lille44%
Monaco35%
Draw28%
Lille37%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 143
Team strength
Monaco
Lille
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
45
AttackIn forecast
42
56
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoLille
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.09
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
81%
Scored inContext
72%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.97
ShotsContext
13.44
4.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.69
35%
On target shareContext
35%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
70%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.92
OffsidesContext
1.56
12.97
Shots allowedContext
8.97
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.19
3.59
BlocksContext
2.55
3.26
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
65%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
470
PassesContext
486
395
Accurate passesContext
416
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.59
FoulsContext
10.63
10.88
Fouls sufferedContext
12.78
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.16
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.90
ShotsContext
11.30
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
42%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
75%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.90
14.10
Shots allowedContext
7.90
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.30
4.00
BlocksContext
2.88
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
68%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
473
PassesContext
483
400
Accurate passesContext
419
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.70
FoulsContext
9.30
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,212 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel829 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 May | 7.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 829 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,212 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
13C. Mawissa
6D. Zakaria
5J. Kehrer
24S. Adingra
23Aladji Bamba
15M. Camara
4J. Teze
10A. Golovin
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
21B. André
32A. Bouaddi
27Félix Correia
10H. Haraldsson
17N. Mukau
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lille+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
2.00points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-4
- Scored
- 2.06
- Conceded
- 1.38
Lille · Away
1.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-5
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H | D 0–0 AW 6–1 H |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 4–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Auxerre | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| Paris FC | L 1–4 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AW 4–2 H |
| Marseille | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Lyon | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Angers | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Lens | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H | W 3–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Nantes | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Nice | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Rennes | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Lorient | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 HW 7–1 A |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 54 of 93 · 1.74 per game | 55 of 93 · 1.77 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Monaco wins3 draws4 Lille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 44%
- 24 Aug 2025Lille1–0Monaco
- 22 Feb 2025Lille2–1Monaco
- 18 Oct 2024Monaco0–0Lille
- 24 Apr 2024Monaco1–0Lille
- 29 Oct 2023Lille2–0Monaco
- 14 May 2023Monaco0–0Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.09 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.69 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 66% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 41% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 41% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 28% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Monaco | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.10 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 5.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.69 | |
| Match total | 9.06 | 9.38 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 18/31 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 15/31 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 11/31 | 38% 12/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 4.25 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 18/32 | 63% 20/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 11/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Monaco | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.40 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.40 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 143 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 3.68
Red cards0.24league 0.27
Cards 5+29%league 36%
Fouls23.0league 23.6
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins40%league 47%
Monaco16 with this referee
Record9-3-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- D25 Apr 26A · Toulouse2–22
- W5 Apr 26H · Marseille2–12
- W29 Nov 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–05
- D26 Apr 25A · LE Havre1–10
- L7 Feb 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–40
Lille10 with this referee
Record3-3-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D17 Aug 25A · Stade Brestois 293–31
- W5 Oct 24H · Toulouse2–13
- L24 Apr 24A · Monaco0–12
- D17 Mar 24A · Stade Brestois 291–10
- L20 Dec 23A · Strasbourg1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco32 games · scored 56 · conceded 48
4
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
8
9
31-45
11
6
46-60
14
9
61-75
12
13
76-90
Lille32 games · scored 51 · conceded 35
5
3
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
9
9
46-60
4
7
61-75
23
6
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
6
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
