Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 3 Wed, Sep 9 · 20:45
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Moreirense had 5 days of rest, Benfica 4.1 and had to travel 304 km.
Away travel304 kmRest days5 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Moreirense10%
Draw16%
Benfica73%
Moreirense15%
Draw20%
Benfica65%
Moreirense10%
Draw16%
Benfica73%
Moreirense7%
Draw13%
Benfica79%
Moreirense11%
Draw17%
Benfica72%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Moreirense
Benfica
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
17
AttackIn forecast
81
27
DefenceIn forecast
81
39
Form indexContext
70
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseBenfica
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
0.33
xGVia Att/Def
2.77
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
6.25
ShotsContext
21.00
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.25
44%
On target shareContext
39%
3.25
Shots in the boxContext
15.50
53%
Box shareContext
74%
16%
ConversionContext
17%
—
OffsidesContext
2.25
16.25
Shots allowedContext
5.25
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
4.00
BlocksContext
2.00
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.33
62%
Save rateContext
57%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
338
PassesContext
566
251
Accurate passesContext
497
74%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.40
Team ratingContext
7.30
13.50
FoulsContext
13.75
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
3.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.63
xGVia Att/Def
2.77
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.00
ShotsContext
21.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.25
38%
On target shareContext
39%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
15.50
56%
Box shareContext
74%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
1.17
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.40
Shots allowedContext
5.25
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
3.90
BlocksContext
2.40
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.33
61%
Save rateContext
57%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
399
PassesContext
566
319
Accurate passesContext
497
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.64
Team ratingContext
7.30
13.30
FoulsContext
12.29
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.86
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
DLWL
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km70 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 4 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Benfica
DWWW
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel304 km6,757 km in 14d
Schedule load31%Moderate
Form 70 · 10 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 31 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 4 Sep | 4.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 70 km | 6,757 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
8M. Stjepanović
23N. John
11Landerson
21Rodri Alonso
7Manuel Mendonça
9A. Duville-Parsemain
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
58Daniel Banjaqui
18L. Barreiro
36João Palhinha
21A. Schjelderup
25G. Prestianni
27Rafa
14V. Pavlidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Benfica · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 1–0 A | W 7–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Moreirense wins2 draws4 Benfica wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 25 Apr 2026Benfica4–1Moreirense
- 14 Dec 2025Moreirense0–4Benfica
- 8 Feb 2025Benfica3–2Moreirense
- 30 Aug 2024Moreirense1–1Benfica
- 14 Apr 2024Benfica3–0Moreirense
- 3 Dec 2023Moreirense0–0Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.25 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Moreirense | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.25 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.00 | 8.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 3.75 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Moreirense | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.66 | 8.67 | 8.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.40 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Moreirense4 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Benfica4 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
4
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 33 · conceded 9
7
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
9
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
