Moreirense vs Estoril – 14 Mar 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 14 · 16:00 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense 12th · 8 pts · 8 played LLWDL

VS— Compare

Estoril 18th · 2 pts · 8 played LDLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel311 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Moreirense—%

Draw—%

Estoril—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

Forecast from 27 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estoril 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Moreirense

Estoril

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

17 AttackIn forecast 21

27 DefenceIn forecast 29

23 Form indexContext 10

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Moreirense

Estoril

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.51 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

63% Scored inContext 50%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

7.88 ShotsContext 12.88

2.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

35% On target shareContext 39%

4.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

55% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 4%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

15.13 Shots allowedContext 13.75

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.88 BlocksContext 3.86

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

58% Save rateContext 61%

36% PossessionIn forecast 47%

324 PassesContext 402

244 Accurate passesContext 322

75% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.48 Team ratingContext 6.70

13.63 FoulsContext 10.88

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38

2.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

50% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

8.50 ShotsContext 12.70

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

33% On target shareContext 38%

4.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

54% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 5%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

14.20 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.00 BlocksContext 3.78

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

56% Save rateContext 58%

41% PossessionIn forecast 48%

364 PassesContext 411

286 Accurate passesContext 333

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.69

12.70 FoulsContext 11.00

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense LLWDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km57 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L9 OctH · GIL Vicente0–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Guimaraes1–10.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts

Estoril LDLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel311 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Academico Viseu1–21.0 xPts
L20 SepH · Casa Pia1–21.8 xPts
L14 SepA · SC Braga0–10.7 xPts
D7 SepH · Arouca0–01.4 xPts
L31 AugA · Benfica1–20.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	311 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	57 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GIL Vicente (H) 0–1, 9 Oct

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

Estoril Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Academico Viseu (A) 1–2, 10 Oct

1Joel Robles(G)

5A. Tsoungui 6Xavi Sintes 35S. Amissah

21R. Jurišić 10J. Holsgrove 44M. Robin 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

7André Lacximicant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Estoril Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.00

Estoril · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Moreirense	Estoril
Benfica	L 0–4 H	L 1–2 A
Casa Pia	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
Arouca	L 0–4 A	D 0–0 H
SC Braga	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Moreirense wins3 draws0 Estoril wins

Goals per game2.17 – 1.50 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 0%

20 Apr 2026Moreirense1–0Estoril
7 Dec 2025Estoril3–3Moreirense
11 May 2025Moreirense2–2Estoril
28 Dec 2024Estoril2–2Moreirense
18 May 2024Moreirense2–1Estoril
13 Jan 2024Estoril1–3Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	Estoril
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	1.88	1.50
Match goals	2.88	2.00
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	38%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	38%	50%
Games	8	8

	Moreirense	Estoril
Scored per game	0.80	0.60
Conceded per game	1.70	1.60
Match goals	2.50	2.20
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	40%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	5.57
Corners conceded	4.88	4.14
Match total	7.38	9.71	8.91
Over 8.5	25% 2/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	0% 0/8	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.38
Opponent cards	1.88	1.38
Match total	4.63	3.76	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	38% 3/8

	Moreirense	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	5.00
Corners conceded	4.30	4.67
Match total	7.60	9.67	8.91
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.40
Opponent cards	1.80	1.60
Match total	4.40	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.