Casa Pia vs Estrela – 14 Mar 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 14 · 16:00 Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras

Casa Pia 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LDLWL

VS— Compare

Estrela 10th · 10 pts · 8 played DWDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Rest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Casa Pia—%

Draw—%

Estrela—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Jamor, Oeiras)

Forecast from 27 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Casa Pia

Estrela

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

13 AttackIn forecast 24

25 DefenceIn forecast 27

19 Form indexContext 24

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

Estrela

0.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

0.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

25% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.63 ShotsContext 12.63

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.13

27% On target shareContext 33%

6.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.63

59% Box shareContext 68%

4% ConversionContext 14%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.60

15.25 Shots allowedContext 10.88

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

5.71 BlocksContext 2.13

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

67% Save rateContext 61%

44% PossessionIn forecast 51%

343 PassesContext 412

268 Accurate passesContext 345

78% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.44 Team ratingContext 6.70

12.13 FoulsContext 10.75

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

30% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.60 ShotsContext 11.10

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

32% On target shareContext 34%

6.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

60% Box shareContext 69%

5% ConversionContext 14%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.50

15.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

5.67 BlocksContext 2.40

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

70% Save rateContext 63%

43% PossessionIn forecast 48%

327 PassesContext 384

251 Accurate passesContext 317

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.56 Team ratingContext 6.70

12.60 FoulsContext 11.00

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L10 OctH · Santa Clara0–11.1 xPts
W20 SepA · Estoril2–11.0 xPts
L12 SepH · FC Porto1–40.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Guimaraes0–00.7 xPts
L30 AugH · Moreirense0–11.5 xPts

Estrela DWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—481 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L11 OctA · Arouca0–10.9 xPts
L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	481 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Santa Clara (H) 0–1, 10 Oct

95Ivan Mandić(G)

75Pedro Rosas 43David Sousa 3Kaly 18André Geraldes

80L. Ofori 16Silvi

77B. Pauwels 70João Rêgo 11M. El Boukammiri

9Henrique Araújo

Estrela Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Arouca (A) 0–1, 11 Oct

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Estrela Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home 0.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 3.25

Estrela · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Casa Pia wins0 draws4 Estrela wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.17 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

20 Mar 2026Estrela4–0Casa Pia
1 Nov 2025Casa Pia3–5Estrela
9 Feb 2025Casa Pia1–0Estrela
31 Aug 2024Estrela0–1Casa Pia
8 Mar 2024Estrela3–1Casa Pia
8 Oct 2023Casa Pia0–1Estrela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	Estrela
Scored per game	0.38	1.75
Conceded per game	2.13	1.88
Match goals	2.50	3.63
Over 1.5	50%	88%
Over 2.5	38%	75%
Over 3.5	25%	63%
Both teams scored	25%	75%
Clean sheets	13%	0%
Failed to score	75%	25%
Games	8	8

	Casa Pia	Estrela
Scored per game	0.50	1.60
Conceded per game	1.80	1.70
Match goals	2.30	3.30
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	70%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	30%	70%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.86
Corners conceded	6.25	4.71
Match total	10.25	9.57	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.38
Opponent cards	2.13	2.50
Match total	4.51	4.88	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8

	Casa Pia	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	4.22
Corners conceded	6.40	5.56
Match total	10.50	9.78	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.70
Opponent cards	2.10	2.20
Match total	4.90	4.90	4.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.