Moreirense vs GIL Vicente – 9 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 8 Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense 12th · 8 pts · 7 played WLLWD

0–1Full time

GIL Vicente 9th · 8 pts · 6 played WDLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GIL Vicente. Moreirense had 19.1 days of rest, GIL Vicente 20.1 and had to travel 28 km.

Away travel28 kmRest days19.1 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Moreirense36%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente36%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.24

Moreirense42%

Draw26%

GIL Vicente32%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.23

Moreirense36%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente36%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.24

Moreirense30%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente43%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.39

Moreirense37%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente36%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.26

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

No weather data yet

RefereeMiguel Bertolo Nogueira

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 4

Team strength

Moreirense

GIL Vicente

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

17 AttackIn forecast 32

27 DefenceIn forecast 50

48 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Moreirense

GIL Vicente

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83

0.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.39

+0.81 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

71% Scored inContext 67%

14% Clean sheetsContext 50%

7.29 ShotsContext 14.17

2.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.83

39% On target shareContext 27%

4.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.33

55% Box shareContext 64%

16% ConversionContext 6%

— OffsidesContext 1.60

15.43 Shots allowedContext 9.83

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.33

3.43 BlocksContext 2.20

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

57% Save rateContext 69%

36% PossessionIn forecast 53%

322 PassesContext 465

241 Accurate passesContext 404

75% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.46 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.86 FoulsContext 13.67

12.86 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 6 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.53 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

60% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.50 ShotsContext 13.20

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

35% On target shareContext 27%

4.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

54% Box shareContext 59%

13% ConversionContext 6%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.44

13.90 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.80

3.60 BlocksContext 3.22

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

54% Save rateContext 67%

44% PossessionIn forecast 51%

386 PassesContext 428

309 Accurate passesContext 367

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.55 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.30 FoulsContext 13.20

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense WLLWD

Rest19.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 48 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected

D20 SepA · Guimaraes1–10.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts
W30 AugA · Casa Pia1–01.3 xPts

GIL Vicente WDLLD

Rest20.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel28 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 23 · 5 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected

D19 SepH · Maritimo1–12.0 xPts
L13 SepA · Benfica1–30.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Academico Viseu0–11.8 xPts
D30 AugA · Famalicao0–01.1 xPts
W24 AugH · Casa Pia2–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	GIL Vicente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	19.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep	20.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	28 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	15.9	10.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

GIL Vicente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30Lucão(G)

45David Moreira 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 47Ricardo Esgaio

86Diogo Prioste 12A. Lausen

20Gil Martins 10Santi García 77Murilo

23Héctor Hernández

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

GIL Vicente Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Moreirense+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
GIL Vicente+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.33

GIL Vicente · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Moreirense	GIL Vicente
Maritimo	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
Benfica	L 0–4 H	L 1–3 A
Casa Pia	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Moreirense wins1 draws3 GIL Vicente wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

7 Feb 2026Moreirense1–2GIL Vicente
29 Aug 2025GIL Vicente2–0Moreirense
6 Apr 2025GIL Vicente0–1Moreirense
8 Nov 2024Moreirense3–2GIL Vicente
20 Apr 2024Moreirense0–1GIL Vicente
11 Dec 2023GIL Vicente1–1Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.14	0.83
Conceded per game	2.00	0.83
Match goals	3.14	1.67	2.48
Over 1.5	86%	50%
Over 2.5	71%	17%	45%
Over 3.5	57%	17%
Both teams scored	57%	33%	51%
Clean sheets	14%	50%
Failed to score	29%	33%
Games	7	6

	Moreirense	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.80
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	2.90	2.00	2.48
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	45%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	2.29	4.40
Corners conceded	5.14	3.20
Match total	7.43	7.60	8.72
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	20% 1/5
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	0% 0/5
Over 10.5	0% 0/7	0% 0/5
Cards
Cards	2.71	1.83
Opponent cards	1.57	2.00
Match total	4.28	3.83	4.40
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	50% 3/6

	Moreirense	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.33
Corners conceded	4.40	4.00
Match total	7.40	8.33	8.72
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	11% 1/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.10
Opponent cards	1.80	1.80
Match total	4.50	3.90	4.40
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Bertolo Nogueira 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.25league 4.15

Red cards0.50league 0.21

Cards 5+50%league 45%

Fouls27.3league 24.8

Penalties0.25league 0.34

Home wins25%league 39%

Moreirense

No previous matches with this referee.

GIL Vicente

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.