Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 4 · 18:00
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for SC Braga. Moreirense had 14.1 days of rest, SC Braga 12.9 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days14.1 · 12.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Moreirense19%
Draw26%
SC Braga56%
Moreirense24%
Draw26%
SC Braga51%
Moreirense19%
Draw26%
SC Braga56%
Moreirense14%
Draw23%
SC Braga63%
Moreirense19%
Draw26%
SC Braga55%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 11
Team strength
Moreirense
SC Braga
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
17
AttackIn forecast
42
27
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseSC Braga
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.04
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.04
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
70%
Scored inContext
88%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
8.41
ShotsContext
12.23
3.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
41%
4.96
Shots in the boxContext
8.54
57%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
1.68
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.85
Shots allowedContext
8.65
4.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.46
BlocksContext
2.48
3.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.35
67%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
415
PassesContext
590
346
Accurate passesContext
517
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.67
FoulsContext
11.46
15.04
Fouls sufferedContext
11.85
2.56
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
6.40
ShotsContext
10.20
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
42%
On target shareContext
44%
3.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
56%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
20%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.70
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
4.00
BlocksContext
2.78
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
63%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
411
PassesContext
538
342
Accurate passesContext
466
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.80
FoulsContext
12.80
15.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel20 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 12.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
78Landerson
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
2Diogo Travassos
11Alan
21Rodri Alonso
23N. John
10Kiko Bondoso
9Luís Semedo
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
4S. Niakaté
14G. Lagerbielke
77Gabri Martínez
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
39Fran Navarro
18Pau Víctor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
1.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-5
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.38
SC Braga · Away
1.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-3
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Nacional | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| AVS | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Estrela | D 0–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Benfica | L 0–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| Estoril | D 3–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Famalicao | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 35 of 78 · 1.35 per game | 43 of 75 · 1.72 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Moreirense wins0 draws5 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.20
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 9 Nov 2025SC Braga2–1Moreirense
- 3 Feb 2025Moreirense1–2SC Braga
- 25 Aug 2024SC Braga3–1Moreirense
- 4 Feb 2024SC Braga1–0Moreirense
- 9 Sep 2023Moreirense2–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 2.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.04 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 3.08 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 73% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 54% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 12% | |
| Games | 27 | 26 |
| Moreirense | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.96 | 5.41 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.05 | |
| Match total | 8.36 | 8.46 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 12/25 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 9/25 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 4% 1/25 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 2.58 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.58 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 17/27 | 73% 19/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 13/27 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Moreirense | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 8.77 | 8.00 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.20 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 4.81
Red cards0.18league 0.26
Cards 5+36%league 58%
Fouls24.7league 27.0
Penalties0.27league 0.44
Home wins55%league 42%
Moreirense1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Feb 26H · Sporting CP0–31
SC Braga1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Dec 25H · Santa Clara1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense27 games · scored 31 · conceded 39
6
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
7
9
46-60
8
7
61-75
5
10
76-90
SC Braga26 games · scored 53 · conceded 27
9
2
0-15
12
7
16-30
10
7
31-45
6
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
11
4
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
2
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
