Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 23 Sat, Feb 21 · 18:00
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sporting CP. Moreirense had 4.9 days of rest, Sporting CP 5.9 and had to travel 304 km.
Away travel304 kmRest days4.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Moreirense14%
Draw23%
Sporting CP63%
Moreirense14%
Draw21%
Sporting CP65%
Moreirense14%
Draw23%
Sporting CP63%
Moreirense10%
Draw20%
Sporting CP70%
Moreirense14%
Draw23%
Sporting CP63%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 9
Team strength
Moreirense
Sporting CP
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
17
AttackIn forecast
75
27
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseSporting CP
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.55
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.55
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
2.09
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
77%
Scored inContext
100%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.82
ShotsContext
18.05
3.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.73
38%
On target shareContext
37%
5.09
Shots in the boxContext
12.14
57%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.76
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.59
Shots allowedContext
7.95
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.38
BlocksContext
2.60
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.61
67%
Save rateContext
81%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
418
PassesContext
528
348
Accurate passesContext
463
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.09
14.09
FoulsContext
12.50
15.18
Fouls sufferedContext
13.41
2.68
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
70%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.40
ShotsContext
14.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
41%
On target shareContext
35%
4.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
57%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.30
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.30
BlocksContext
4.63
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
59%
Save rateContext
81%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
455
PassesContext
492
382
Accurate passesContext
431
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.70
FoulsContext
12.00
16.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km68 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sporting CP
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel304 km547 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Feb | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 68 km | 547 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
17Álvaro Martínez
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
21Rodri Alonso
8M. Stjepanović
10Kiko Bondoso
11Alan
7Cedric Teguia
99Maranhão
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
26O. Diomande
22Iván Fresneda
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
31Luis Guilherme
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
1.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.30
Sporting CP · Away
2.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-0
- Scored
- 2.09
- Conceded
- 0.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| AVS | W 2–0 A | W 6–0 H |
| Estrela | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Estoril | D 3–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Arouca | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Nacional | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 33 of 63 · 1.57 per game | 52 of 63 · 2.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Moreirense wins0 draws4 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.60 – 2.40
Over 2.580%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets0% · 60%
- 22 Sep 2025Sporting CP3–0Moreirense
- 18 Apr 2025Sporting CP3–1Moreirense
- 5 Dec 2024Moreirense2–1Sporting CP
- 19 Feb 2024Moreirense0–2Sporting CP
- 17 Sep 2023Sporting CP3–0Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 2.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 0.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 3.09 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 64% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 0% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Moreirense | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.15 | 6.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 2.95 | |
| Match total | 8.35 | 9.84 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 9/20 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 7/20 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 5% 1/20 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.82 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.95 | |
| Match total | 4.82 | 5.45 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 15/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 11/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Moreirense | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.78 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.80 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 4.93
Red cards0.22league 0.29
Cards 5+44%league 59%
Fouls25.0league 27.0
Penalties0.33league 0.44
Home wins67%league 41%
MoreirenseNo previous matches with this referee.
Sporting CP1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Aug 25A · Nacional4–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense22 games · scored 29 · conceded 30
6
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
7
7
46-60
7
4
61-75
5
9
76-90
Sporting CP22 games · scored 56 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
14
31-45
8
2
46-60
9
2
61-75
16
4
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
7
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
