NAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 16). NAC Breda had 7.1 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 14 and had to travel 116 km.
Away travel116 kmRest days7.1 · 14Matches / 14d2 · 1
NAC Breda20%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar56%
NAC Breda20%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar55%
NAC Breda20%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar56%
NAC Breda15%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar63%
NAC Breda20%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar55%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Breda)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 35
Team strength
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
19
AttackIn forecast
52
19
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NAC BredaAZ Alkmaar
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
2.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.68
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+1.55
33%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.33
ShotsContext
14.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
29%
On target shareContext
28%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
45%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
21%
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
16.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.33
BlocksContext
—
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
344
PassesContext
504
266
Accurate passesContext
428
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.04
13.00
FoulsContext
10.50
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.78
60%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.90
ShotsContext
13.80
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
28%
On target shareContext
44%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
54%
Box shareContext
68%
6%
ConversionContext
19%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.10
Shots allowedContext
11.60
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
3.10
BlocksContext
4.33
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
64%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
404
PassesContext
417
330
Accurate passesContext
345
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.19
11.40
FoulsContext
10.90
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NAC Breda
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km159 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel116 km53 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NAC Breda |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 116 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 159 km | 53 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.2 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
2B. Lucassen
12L. Greiml
22R. Hillen
4B. Kemper
16M. Balard
90L. Holtby
32J. Talvitie
10M. Nassoh
14K. Sowah
17S. van Hooijdonk
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
30D. Kasius
3W. Goes
5Alexandre Penetra
34M. de Wit
6P. Koopmeiners
8J. Clasie
11I. Sadiq
26K. Smit
27Ro-Zangelo Daal
35M. Meerdink
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NAC Breda
Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NAC Breda+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
NAC Breda · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
AZ Alkmaar · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 NAC Breda wins1 draws1 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 Apr 2025AZ Alkmaar1–1NAC Breda
- 15 Dec 2024NAC Breda1–2AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NAC Breda | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 4.50 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| NAC Breda | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 4.50 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NAC Breda | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.67 | 7.00 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 4.00 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| NAC Breda | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 9.50 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.30 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.09league 3.36
Red cards0.06league 0.15
Cards 5+26%league 33%
Fouls19.6league 22.4
Penalties0.26league 0.15
Home wins51%league 52%
NAC Breda1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Oct 24A · PEC Zwolle2–12
AZ Alkmaar4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–13
- D25 Aug 24A · Groningen0–01
- L6 Dec 23H · NEC Nijmegen1–20
- W3 Sep 23A · Vitesse2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NAC Breda3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
AZ Alkmaar2 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 26 · conceded 7
6
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
